From: Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com>
Newsgroups: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,can.politics,alt.politics.trump,alt.politics.liberalism,alt.politics.democrats,alt.politics.usa.republican
Subject: Re: The World's #1 #Climate Scam Fraudster - Michael E Mann -
Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 17:30:58 -0700
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
On 2024-08-28 14:58, AlleyCat wrote:
>
> On Wed, 28 Aug 2024 12:08:07 -0700, Alan says...
>
>>
>> On 2024-08-28 08:37, AlleyCat wrote:
>>>
>>> The world's #1 #ClimateScam fraudster - @MichaelEMann - predicted a record 33 named storms. It is the end of
>>> August, and there have only been five. I don't expect to see a retraction, acknowledgment or mea culpa from
>>> him or the @washingtonpost
>>>
>>> https://x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1807213689852043497
>>
>> What Michael Mann has to say is of less interest than what the actual
>> prediction was:
>
> It's HIS (and his team's) prediction, you fucking moron.
>
> That NOAA shit you posted is NOT Michael E. Mann's and teams' prediction, faggot-1.
>
> Prof Michael E. Mann @ @MichaelEMann - Jun 29 - "Don't say WE didn't warn you"
>
> Forecast group predicts busiest hurricane season on record with 33 storms.
Which is what the Washington Post used as a headline...
...which is not necessarily an accurate reflection of what the reports
actually says...
...and the actual report gives a range from 27 to 39...
...and the actual prediction talks about specific conditions that need
to be met, and what will happen if they are not met.
'The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current
North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature
(SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAAâs Coral Reef Watch)
throughout the 2024 hurricane season, (b) development of a moderate La
Nina (Niño3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in
late Boreal summer and fall 2024 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April
2023), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic
Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024.
If neutral ENSO conditions (Niño3.4 anomaly of 0.0°C) take shape later
in 2024, then the prediction will be lower: 30.5 +/- 5.5 storms (range
of 25 â 36 storms, with a best guess of 31).
Using an alternative model that uses ârelativeâ MDR SST (MDR SST with
the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a
lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative
model also includes positive ENSO conditions.'
<https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchgroup/highlights/highlights-2024hurricane/>
But you're only interested in gotcha moments, right?
:-)