Davin News Server

On Fri, 30 Aug 2024 02:32:58 +1000,  kymhorsell@gmail.com says...  

> [RECORD!]
> You just lived through the most humid summer on record
> WaPo, 29 Aug 2024 15:29Z

Wapo?  LOL

Izzat where you hewo works now?

Do you know what your hewo said?

James Hansen (you HAVE heard of him... right?)

"Despite the similarity of the CO, and temperature curves, it should not be inferred that the CO, "caused" 
the climate change. Indeed, the CO2 changes, generally lag slightly behind the temperature changes."

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWE9QJ7WsAIOwgF?format=jpg&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWLKlUZWwAMpLiu?format=png&name=large

Fueled by Hunga-caused volcanic debris, the record humidity has made heat 
waves more dangerous and intensified downpours.

Thank you, Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'pai!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGb8WPGX0AAcwa_?format=png&name=large

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1758371687911800832/pu/vid/avc1/960x540/5noN49zt-p-9UOwY.mp4?tag=12

Hunga Tonga volcano: impact on record warming | Climate Etc.

Hunga Tonga volcano: impact on record warming
Posted on July 5, 2024 by curryja | 277 Comments

By Javier Vinós

The climate event of 2023 was truly exceptional, but the prevailing catastrophism about climate change 
hinders its proper scientific analysis. I present arguments that support the view that we are facing an 
extraordinary and extremely rare natural event in climate history.

1. Off-scale warming

Since the planet has been warming for 200 years, and our global records are even more recent, every few years 
a new warmest year in history is recorded. Despite all the publicity given each time it happens, it would 
really be news if it didn't happen, as it did between 1998 and 2014, a period popularly known as the pause.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.48.43 AM

Figure 1. Berkeley Earth temperature anomaly

Since 1980, 13 years have broken the temperature record. So, what is so special about the 2023 record and the 
expected 2024 record? For starters, 2023 broke the record by the largest margin in records, 0.17°C. This may 
not sound like much, but if all records were by this margin, we would go from +1.5°C to +2°C in just 10 
years, and reach +3°C 20 years later.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.49.28 AM

Figure 2. Berkeley Earth 2023 temperature anomaly

Moreover, to produce so much warming, almost the entire globe experienced above-average warming. 2023 was a 
year of real global warming, although most of the warming occurred in the Northern Hemisphere.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.50.39 AM

Figure 3. 2023 global surface temperature anomaly over pre-industrial baseline in six datasets.

As a result, one of the major databases, Berkeley Earth, has exceeded the +1.5°C limit for a full year for 
the first time, and 2024 promises another temperature record. Crossing the dangerous warming threshold so 
early has caused some confusion, exacerbated by the fact that not much difference seems to be noticeable. 
Even Arctic ice remains above the average of the last decade. And if we've already crossed the line and the 
climate is beyond repair, what's the point of trying?

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.52.06 AM

Figure 4. Global temperature calculation by Copernicus system.

But the authorities have been quick to point out that even if we are above +1.5°C in 2023 or 2024, we will 
not have crossed the threshold. There is a catch. The global temperature is not the temperature of one month 
or one year, but the temperature of the linear trend of the last 30 years, which according to the European 
Copernicus system is +1.28°C and is expected to exceed +1.5°C in 10 years.

2. Uncharted territory

In June 2023, the North Atlantic experienced a heat wave unprecedented in 40 years, with temperatures 5°C 
warmer than usual. Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, said the world was "entering uncharted 
territory. We have never seen anything like this in our life". To understand what has puzzled scientists so 
much, it is necessary to look at the evolution of the temperature of the Earth's oceans throughout the year 
since 1979.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.53.11 AM

Figure 5. 60°N-60°S global ocean surface temperature by year since 1979.

On average, the Earth's oceans are warmest in February-March and coldest in October-November, with an 
intermediate maximum in August. This is an annual cycle caused by the tilt of the Earth's axis, the 
arrangement of the continents, and seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and albedo. A cycle that has 
never been broken as long as measurements have been kept until 2023. This year shows an accentuated warming 
since January, leading to daily temperature records since the beginning of April. But what is absolutely 
astonishing is that the ocean continued to warm in June and July and reached an annual maximum in August, 
something that has never happened before. And the warming through August is staggering, about 0.33°C above 
the 2016 record, which is huge for the ocean. After that, the annual cycle begins to behave normally, but at 
a much higher temperature, which is slowly falling. In June 2024, after 415 days of record temperatures, the 
ocean is still about 0.2°C warmer than it should be.

Buontempo means good weather in English, and his phrase "we have entered uncharted territory" has become very 
popular. However, it assumes that we have reached and will remain in this situation, whereas the data suggest 
that this is a one-off anomaly with diminishing effects. For now, it tells us that nothing dramatic is 
happening as we approach the politically established warming threshold.

Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's climate monitoring institute, also uses the expression "uncharted 
territory" when he explains that the 2023 anomaly worries scientists, saying that climate models cannot 
explain why the planet's temperature suddenly spiked in 2023. Not only was the temperature anomaly much 
larger than expected, but it occurred months before the onset of El Nino. In his own words: "The 2023 
temperature anomaly has come out of the blue, revealing an unprecedented knowledge gap perhaps for the first 
time since about 40 years ago. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the 
climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated." According to Gavin, we could have 
broken the climate and the models would no longer work.

Instead of abandoning science for wild speculation let's examine the possible factors responsible for the 
abrupt warming that Gavin Schmidt dismisses by saying they could explain at most a few hundredths of a 
degree, for which he has little evidence.

3. The little boy is innocent

El Nino is unlikely to be responsible for the simple reason that such abrupt global warming is unprecedented 
in our records, and El Nino has many precedents. In addition, El Nino warms a specific region of the 
equatorial Pacific and primarily affects the Pacific, while the "2023 event" warmed parts of the North 
Atlantic to an extraordinary degree. This does not prevent scientists like Jan Esper and Ulf Büntgen from 
saying that 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse gas-induced warming trend amplified by an El Nino. They 
clearly did not examine the data before writing this, nor did the reviewers of their Nature paper.

The relationship between the temperature of the equatorial Pacific and that of the global ocean during an El 
Nino is shown in the figure below.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.53.56 AM

Figure 6. Nino 3.4 temperature anomaly (red) and detrended satellite global ocean temperature anomaly 
(black).

The temperature anomaly in the Pacific Nino 3.4 region shows the very strong Ninos of 1983, 1998, and 2016, 
and the strong Ninos of 1988, 1992, 2009, and 2024. The years correspond to the month of January during the 
event. When the satellite global ocean temperature anomaly is plotted without its long-term trend, we observe 
a very close correspondence. The long-term trend responds to other causes, but the temperature variations 
correspond to the export of heat from the equatorial Pacific to the rest of the globe.

We also observe two things. The first is that the correspondence fails in two periods, in 1992 as a result of 
the Pinatubo eruption a year earlier, and in 2024. The second observation is that in all strong or very 
strong Ninos, the source of the heat, the equatorial Pacific, warms earlier and warms more or as much in 
relative terms as the global ocean warms later. This does not happen in the 2024 El Nino. The warming is 
simultaneous and greater than it should be outside the equatorial Pacific.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.54.56 AM

Figure 7. Nino 3.4 temperature anomaly (red) and detrended ERSST PDO (blue).

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived pattern of climate variability 
similar to El Nino in the North Pacific. And this is evident when we compare the two after removing a long-
term trend that the PDO should not have. The agreement is very strong, and again we see a significant anomaly 
in 1991 due to the Pinatubo eruption. But even more important is the anomaly in 2023-24, when the PDO shows 
extraordinarily small changes and remains negative when it should be positive.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.55.50 AM

Figure 8. During the 2023 event the North Pacific stayed in negative PDO conditions, while the equatorial 
Pacific displayed El Nino conditions.

To understand this response, one must consider that the warm phase of the PDO requires the Northwest Pacific 
to be cold, but as we have shown above, the Northwest Pacific was very warm in 2023, causing the PDO to 
remain in a cold phase. A negative phase of the PDO during El Nino is unprecedented and categorically rules 
out El Nino as the cause of the abrupt warming that has puzzled scientists. In fact, it is possible that the 
ocean warming that began in March 2023 was the cause of the 2024 El Nino by weakening the trade winds in the 
equatorial Pacific.

I'd like to thank Charles May for bringing this data to my attention and for doing such an excellent job 
analyzing it each month.

4. Sulfate aerosols are not responsible

Another possibility that is under consideration is the reduction of sulfate aerosols as a result of the 
change in marine fuel regulations in 2020.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.56.42 AM

Figure 9. Global sulfur emissions for the past 64 years

The reduction in sulfur emissions since the late 1970s is considered a significant warming factor by reducing 
emissions of shortwave radiation reflected from the atmosphere. However, the reduction in sulfur dioxide 
emissions from marine fuels since 2020 is estimated at 14% of total emissions.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 9.57.38 AM

Figure 10. Model-calculated global temperature effect of an 80% reduction (red curve) in marine fuel sulfur 
content from pre-2020 situation (blue curve), and decadal mean difference (green bars).

A recent study, still under peer review, used a climate model to calculate that sulfur emission reductions 
from 2020 could cause global warming of 0.02°C in the first decade. Since the warming in 2023 was 10 times 
greater, it is difficult to believe that emissions reductions since 2020 could have been a major factor in 
the abrupt warming in 2023.

In the figure, the blue curve is the global warming predicted with the previously used marine fuel, and the 
red curve is the one predicted with the fuel with 80% less sulfur. The difference between the two curves for 
the decade 2020-30 is the green bar of 0.02°C.

5. CO2 increase didn't do it

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased slightly by about 2.5 parts per million in 2023.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 10.02.13 AM

Figure 11. Monthly (red) and 12-month (black) CO2 levels at Mauna Loa.

The increase from 418.5 to 421 ppm represents an increase of 0.6% and is similar to the increase that has 
occurred each year for the past several decades. Nothing in our knowledge of the effect of CO2 increases on 
climate suggests that such a small increase could have led to such a large and abrupt warming. There is no 
study to suggest that the gradual increase in CO2 could lead to a sudden increase in climate variability. 
Therefore, all model predictions are long-term and affect the statistics of weather phenomena. The proof is 
that scientists and models cannot explain what happened in 2023.

6. Tonga volcano prime suspect

Just over a year before the abrupt warming, in January 2022, an extremely unusual volcanic eruption took 
place in Tonga. How unusual? It was an eruption of VEI 5 explosivity, capable of reaching the stratosphere, 
which occurs on average every 10 years.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 10.03.01 AM

Figure 12. Time and cone elevation of VEI =5 volcanic eruptions of the past 200 years, their distribution by 
altitude (yellow bars), and the suggested depth for a submarine eruption capable of projecting a large amount 
of water to the stratosphere (red line).

There have been a number of eruptions with VEI 5 or higher in the last 200 years, although not all of them 
have affected the global climate. This figure shows with dots the date they occurred and the elevation at 
which the volcanic cone was located. The yellow bars show the distribution of eruptions in 500 m elevation 
bins. The Tonga eruption was a submarine explosion at very shallow depths, about 150 m below the sea surface. 
It ejected 150 million tons of water into the stratosphere.

In our 200 years of records there is only one other submarine eruption with VEI 5, which occurred in 1924 off 
the Japanese island of Iriomote at a depth of 200 m and did not affect the atmosphere. Only surface effects 
were observed. NASA scientists believe that the Tonga explosion occurred at the right depth to project a lot 
of water into the stratosphere. This depth is indicated by the red line. So, the Tonga eruption is a once in 
200-year event, probably less than once in a millennium. Science was very lucky. We are not so lucky.

We know that strong volcanic eruptions, capable of reaching the stratosphere, can have a very strong effect 
on the climate for a few years, and that this effect can be delayed by more than a year. The eruption of 
Mount Tambora in April 1815 had a global effect on the climate, but it took 15 months for the effect to 
develop, during the year without a summer of 1816. These delayed effects coincided with the appearance of a 
veil of sulfate aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere due to seasonal changes in the global 
stratospheric circulation.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 10.03.38 AM

Figure 13. Stratospheric water vapor anomaly at 45°N.

In this image on the vertical axis, we observe the water vapor anomaly in the stratosphere between 15 and 40 
km altitude with ocher tones for negative values and greenish for positive ones. The measurement takes place 
at 45° latitude in the northern hemisphere. On the horizontal axis is the date, and we can see that the large 
anomaly created by the Tonga eruption does not appear in the Northern Hemisphere until one year later, in 
2023, when the warming occurred. Thus, there are dynamical events in the stratosphere that have the 
appropriate time lag to coincide with the abrupt warming in 2023.

Because the Tonga eruption is unprecedented, there is much about its effects that we do not understand. But 
we do know that the planetary greenhouse effect is very sensitive to changes in stratospheric water vapor 
because, unlike the troposphere, the stratosphere is very dry and far from greenhouse saturation.

As a group of scientists showed in 2010, the effect of changes in stratospheric water vapor is so important 
that the warming between 2000 and 2009 was reduced by 25% because it decreased by 10%. And after the Tonga 
eruption, it increased by 10% because of the 150 million tons of water released into the stratosphere, so we 
could have experienced much of the warming of an entire decade in a single year.

Screen Shot 2024-07-05 at 10.04.30 AM

Figure 14. Global water vapor anomaly above 68hPa.

The stratosphere has already begun to dry out again, but it is a slow process that will take many years. In 
2023 only 20 million tons of water returned to the troposphere, 13%.

7. Dismissing natural warming

On the one hand, we have an absolutely unprecedented abrupt warming that the models cannot explain and that 
has scientists scratching their heads. Such anomalous warming cannot logically respond to the usual suspects, 
El Nino, reduced sulfur emissions, or increased CO2, which have been going on for many decades.

On the other hand, we have an absolutely unprecedented volcanic eruption, the effects of which we cannot 
know, but which, according to what we know about the greenhouse effect, should cause significant and abrupt 
warming.

Of course, we cannot conclude that the warming was caused by the volcano, but it is clear that it is by far 
the most likely suspect, and any other candidate should have to demonstrate its ability to act abruptly with 
such magnitude before being seriously considered.

So why do scientists like Gavin Schmidt argue, without evidence or knowledge, that the Tonga volcano could 
not have been responsible? If the effect were cooling, the volcano would be blamed without a second's 
hesitation, but significant natural warming undermines the message that warming is the fault of our 
emissions.


=====

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