From: Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com>
Newsgroups: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,can.politics,alt.politics.trump,alt.politics.liberalism,alt.politics.democrats,alt.politics.usa.republican
Subject: Re: The World's Top Climate Scam Professional
Date: Wed, 4 Sep 2024 14:06:41 -0700
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
On 2024-09-04 12:32, AlleyCat wrote:
>
> On Wed, 4 Sep 2024 10:51:44 -0700, Alan says...
>
>>
>> On 2024-09-04 10:05, AlleyCat wrote:
>>>
>>> The world's top Climate Scam professional, Michael E. Mann, predicted 33 named storms for 2024. So far there
>>> have only been six, with none in the forecast. When can we expect to see a retraction from the Washington
>>> Post?
>>>
>>> https://x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1807213689852043497
>>
>> He said a good deal more than what you claim, Loser-1.
>
> Post it then, faggot-1.
Sure, Pussey! Happy to:
'The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which
corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of
33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of
Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon
the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering
a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the
historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current
North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature
(SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAAâs Coral Reef Watch)
throughout the 2024 hurricane season, (b) development of a moderate La
Nina (Niño3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in
late Boreal summer and fall 2024 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April
2023), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic
Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024.
If neutral ENSO conditions (Niño3.4 anomaly of 0.0°C) take shape later
in 2024, then the prediction will be lower: 30.5 +/- 5.5 storms (range
of 25 â 36 storms, with a best guess of 31).
Using an alternative model that uses ârelativeâ MDR SST (MDR SST with
the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a
lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative
model also includes positive ENSO conditions.'
See, a lot more.