From: R Kym Horsell <kymhorsell@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: alt.global-warming,sci.environment,can.politics
Subject: Re: Monitoring "progress" to 2050 : CO2
Date: Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:44:26 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: kymhorsell.com
In alt.global-warming citizen winston smith <sss@example.de> wrote:
> On 9/16/2024 2:08 PM, R Kym Horsell wrote:
>> citizen winston smith <sss@example.de> wrote:
>>> On 9/16/2024 9:46 AM, N_Cook wrote:
>>>> Jan 2022 output was 515.25
>>> CO2 PPM during our most fecund geologic epochs was over 3,000 PPM,
>>> clownshow.
>> Just no mammals, right?
> Dead wrong!
...
> We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late
...
2000 is not 3000 clownshow.
--
Age (mn y) atm CO2 ext rate model-est
(rel now) %genera ext rate
-10 1.17933 2.06767 1.16133
-15 1.30199 2.29323 2.00115
-27 1.46844 5.58271 3.14078
-35 1.75146 8.35734 5.07853
-47 1.92988 7.98761 6.30012
-110 2.04695 3.54135 7.10166
-94 2.19502 8.88502 8.11545
-119 2.39967 10.4165 9.51662
-150 2.63641 9.79616 11.1375
-159 2.81913 9.28572 12.3885
-162 3.04563 4.82972 13.9393*
-166 3.27991 5.91923 15.5434*
-249 3.48535 16.5902 16.9499
-253 3.64985 28.3083 18.0762*
-254 3.77971 25.5551 18.9653*
y = 6.84669*x + -6.91318
beta in 6.84669 +- 2.93244 90% CI
P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999413
r2 = 0.568059
calculated Spearman corr = 0.742857
Critical Spearman = 0.623000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_related
I.e. for each 280 ppmv extinction rate goes up 6.8+-2.9 pct points.
Changes in level of atm CO2 in paleo record explains 57% of ext rate
variations.
Extinction rates:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Extinction_intensity.svg
Atm CO2:
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for the last 500 million years
Daniel H. Rothman
PNAS April 2, 2002 99 (7) 4167-4171; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.022055499
Fig 4.