From: R Kym Horsell <kymhorsell@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: sci.environment,can.politics,seattle.politics,or.politics
Subject: Re: OT Why do people make fun of trump?
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2024 01:15:54 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: kymhorsell.com
In sci.environment Dhu on Gate <campbell@neotext.ca> wrote:
> On Wed, 2 Oct 2024 12:49:02 -0600, Mittens Romney wrote:
>> There is increasing concern that energy generation from fossil fuels
> Hydrocarbons are the safest, densest (not counting radio-isotopes)
> energy transport mechanism we have: so far batteries *ain't* up
> to snuff either way.
> It's the "fossil" part that's a problem.
> Dhu
I dont know about the breathing methane is perfectly safe part.
But scientists would not have a climate problem if gasoline was
made from the air using solar or wind power.
The problem fos fossil cos would be then it could be made by anyone
and they would lose control of their fenced-off rentseeker resource.
Can't have that!
--
The most likely culprit [for the dieback of Azorella on Macquarie
Island] would seem is climate change. Having evolved in an environment
with a remarkably consistent climate -- albeit consistently cold and
wet -- on a tiny speck of land within the latitudes of the furious
fifties, Azorella looks to be well suited for constant drizzle and
howling westerly winds. This climate has become less consistent over
the last 30 to 40 years, heavy rain is more common; periods of several
days with no drizzle at all are more common; wind may be getting
stronger; and sunny days possibly more common. Maybe a threshold has
been crossed and Azorella is no longer superbly adapted to its
environment because the environment in which it has evolved over
thousands of years has changed.
-- ABC, "Walking the climate tightrope on Macquarie Island", 19 May 2014
http://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?q="forest+dieback"&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_ylo=YEAR&as_yhi=YEAR
year #results
2000 107
2001 121
2002 112
2003 120
2004 139
2005 151
2006 170
2007 189
2008 220
2009 286
2010 336
2011 315
2012 277
2013 361
AR regression finds growth of 23 additional publications featuring
keyword "forest dieback" each year.
R2 = 80%.
Beta = 23.16 +- 6.25
P(beta>0) = 99.9982%
Spearman = .945055 at 11 d.f.
critical value = 0.673000 2-sided at 1%
therefore reject hypothesis variables are independent
and accept theory that #articles is increasing each year.
Serial corr rho = 0.411282.
estimated rho = 0.411282
avx 1181.968087
sdx 2.202781 (= 0.186365% of avx)
rangex 1178.435780..1185.500395 (= 0.597699% of avx)
avy 134.700738
sdy 57.013505 (= 42.326052% of avy)
rangey 62.234865..247.074856 (= 137.222701% of avy)
_a = -27244.6
_b = 23.1642
_a := -46277.9
4 (30.8%) points > 1 \sigma
1 (7.7%) points > 2 \sigma
y = 23.1642*x + -46277.9
sdx 7.94224
rss 8410.04
se 27.6505
r 0.894974
limits for beta at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.79589 at 11 d.f.
beta in 23.1642 +- 6.25229 = [16.9119, 29.4165]
T-tests on beta:
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000
calculated t = 6.65361 at 11 d.f.
|t| > tc (1.79589 2-sided); reject H0
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta > 0.000000
t > tc (1.36343 right tail); reject H0
Probabilities:
P(beta!=0.000000) = 0.999964
P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999982
limits for alpha at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.79589 at 11 d.f.
alpha in -46277.9 +- 7390.02 = [-53667.9, -38887.9]
r2 = 0.800979
calculated Spearman corr = 0.945055
Testing:
H0: vars are independent
|r| > rc (0.673000 2-sided) at 1%; reject H0
tag x y yp
foo 2000 107 50.4716**
foo 2001 121 73.6358*
foo 2002 112 96.8
foo 2003 120 119.964
foo 2004 139 143.128
foo 2005 151 166.293
foo 2006 170 189.457
foo 2007 189 212.621
foo 2008 220 235.785
foo 2009 286 258.949
foo 2010 336 282.113*
foo 2011 315 305.278
foo 2012 277 328.442*
Durbin-Watson d = 0.997284
% n is too small; can't test d
avx -1.573626
sdx 28.967512 (= -1840.812567% of avx)
rangex -43.063736..56.894505 (= -6352.094972% of avx)
avy -2.514286
sdy 28.022885 (= -1114.546571% of avy)
rangey -43.063736..56.894505 (= -3975.611888% of avy)
rho(b) = 0.355408