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Climate hoax takes another punch to the gut: "Global warming" between 1880-2020 overestimated by 42% because of 
unaccounted for weather station aging, reports new study. Results confirmed against NASA satellite data.


Systematic Error in Global Temperatures due to Weather Station Aging Moritz Büsing Augsburg, Germany

Abstract:

The white paint or white plastic of the housings of weather stations ages, which leads to increased absorption of solar 
radiation and to increased temperature measurements. This alone would be a small error. However, many different state-
of-the-art homogenization algorithms repeatedly add this small value each time a weather station is renovated, renewed, 
or replaced, which results in a substantial systematic error. 

This error occurs, because steps in the temperature data series are corrected as if they were permanent, but this is 
not always the case, particularly not in case of weather station aging and renewal. 

An in-depth analysis of the weather station data sets (homogenized and non-homogenized) con-firmed the presence of this 
systematic error, proved the existence of statistically significant aging effects, and allowed the author to quantify 
the size of the aging effects. 

The effect of the aging effects on the temperature curves is quantified by adding the aging functions to the 
temperature data points in the intervals between homogenizations. This corrected data base is analyzed using the 
GISTEMP tool. 

Here it is shown that a reduction of the temperature change between the decades 1880-1890 and 2010-2020 also reduces 
the objective temperature increase from 1.43°C to 0.83°C (Confidence Interval 95%:[0.46 °C; 1.19 °C]). 

Submitted 2024-02-10, Accepted 2024-08-20. 

https://doi.org/10.53234/scc202407/21

1. Introduction Several institutions have performed surface temperature analyses, such as GISTEMP from the Goddard 
Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and HadCRUT from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. A data 
homogenization step is performed before or during these analyses. The homogenization algorithms differ in the way they 
detect the time and size of stepwise changes in the data series, but they are very similar - often almost identical, 
regarding how the detected steps are corrected. See Venema et al. 2018 for an authoritative overview of the often-
ingenious homogenization methods, algorithms and related literature. 

There are many different such algorithms (e.g. ACMANT, HOMER, MASH), but this work mainly addresses the corrections as 
they are applied by the "pairwise algorithm" (Menne et al. 2009) from the National Centers for Environmental 
Information (NCEI) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), because this covers most of the other 
algorithms. Furthermore, the excellent documentation and data availability by GISS and NCEI NOAA made it particularly 
easy to reproduce their results, and finally adjust them. 

Homogenization consists of removing non-climate related changes in temperature, especially stepwise changes in 
temperature measurements related to using different types of weather stations, different instrumentation, different 
housings, different recording methods and/or different locations. The data series are homogenized by adjusting the past 
data such that the data series becomes continuous and shows a homogeneous trend with the other highly correlated 
weather stations. This means when there is an upwards step in the data series, then all the past data are increased by 
the size of the step. When there is a downwards step in the data series then all the past data are decreased by the 
size of the step. 

These stepwise corrections are applied equally to all adjusted data. This means that the same offset is applied to all 
data before a step. This is correct for changes in instrumentation, type of weather station or location, however, a 
systematic error occurs when this is applied to temporary steps in the data series. 

Aging effects change the temperature measurements continuously until the effect is saturated. When the station is 
cleaned, repainted, or the housing is replaced, then there is a downwards step. But this step is temporary, because the 
aging effects return within a few years and then reach saturation again (see Figure 1). 

Most causes of large stepwise temperature changes, such as changes in instrumentation, type of weather station or 
location, coincide with cleaning, repainting, or replacing the housing of the weather stations. 

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