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https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem


Report
Published January 27, 2023
13 minute read
The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem
Widening Red States Murder Gap Header v2
Photo of Kylie Murdock
Kylie Murdock
Policy Advisor
@kyliemmurdock
Photo of Jim Kessler
Jim Kessler
Executive Vice President for Policy
@ThirdWayKessler
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Takeaways

    The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has 
exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in 
every year from 2000 to 2020.
    Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily 
widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 
2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling 
back to 43% in 2020.
    Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than 
the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
    If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, 
Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 
2000 and 2020.
    Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, 
overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-
voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 
years observed.

Republicans have made crime a major selling point over the past several 
elections. In 2020 and 2022, they ran ads accusing Democratic candidates 
of wanting to “defund the police”– a position held by only a handful of 
fringe Democratic officeholders. In October 2022, one-quarter of ads from 
Republican candidates and PACs focused on crime. Republican-aligned Fox 
News aired, on average, 141 segments on crime across weekdays in the two 
months leading up to the midterms. In the week after the midterm, their 
coverage of violent crime dropped by 50%.

In March of 2022, we released a report that found murder rates in 2020 
were 40% higher in Trump-voting states than Biden-voting states. In this 
follow-up report, we studied homicide data going back to 2000 to see if 
this one-year Red State murder epidemic was an anomaly. It was not. 
Despite a media narrative to the contrary, a wide and widening Red State 
murder gap has spanned the past two decades.

In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 
50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder’s National Center for 
Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates 
collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital 
Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it’s more up 
to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and 
states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; 
they’re only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United 
States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more 
accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing data–New 
Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. In these instances, we 
relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for 
comparison, we calculated the state’s per capita murder rate, the number 
of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their 
presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state 
split.

We found that the murder rate in Trump-voting states has exceeded the 
murder rate in Biden-voting states every year this century. Cumulatively, 
overall murder rates since 2000 were on average 23% higher in Trump-
voting states. For the past 21 years, the top 10 murder rate states have 
been dominated by reliably red states, namely Louisiana, Mississippi, 
Alabama, and Missouri. Even when we removed the county with the largest 
city in Trump-voting states (and kept them in for Biden-voting states), 
murder rates were still significantly higher in these red states.

And while media reports give the impression that murder rates are 
skyrocketing in blue areas, murder rates have actually increased at far 
higher rates in Trump-voting states over the past two decades, widening 
the Red State murder gap from a low of 9% in 2003 and 2004 to a high of 
44% in 2019, before falling to 43% in 2020. Since 2000, murder rates have 
increased 39.4% in red states and just 13.4% in blue states.

There is a media and political narrative that crime is a Democratic 
problem, occurring mostly in big blue cities and fueled by lax policies. 
While murder is by no means the only crime in America, it is the most 
serious. And as far as murder is concerned, it is a bigger problem in red 
states than blue states and only becoming more so. As we noted in our 
last report, Republicans do a much better job blaming others for crime 
than actually stopping it.
The murder rate in Trump-voting states has exceeded Biden-voting states 
every year this century.

Despite the “Democrat-caused crime crisis,” murder rates in Trump-voting 
states have been higher than Biden-voting states every single year this 
century (see graph below). In 2000, the murder rate in Trump-voting 
states was 6.35 per 100,000 residents compared to Biden states’ 5.47 per 
100,000 residents, 16% higher. At its lowest, in 2003 and 2004, murder 
rates in Trump states were 9% higher than in Biden states. At its 
highest, in 2019, murder rates in Trump states were 44% higher than in 
Biden states.

Overall, when looking at 2000-2020, murder rates were on average 23% 
higher in Trump states. The average murder rate in Trump states between 
2000 and 2020 was 6.44 per 100,000 residents compared to 5.23 per 100,000 
residents in Biden states. If Biden states had the same murder rate as 
Trump states, they would have seen 5,000 more murders in 2020 alone. 
Between 2000 and 2020, they would have suffered an additional 45,400 
murders.

If Biden states had the same murder rate as Trump states, they would have 
seen 5,000 more murders in 2020 alone. Between 2000 and 2020, they would 
have suffered an additional 45,400 murders.

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The top 10 murder rate states are increasingly dominated by Trump-voting 
states.

Solidly red states have dominated the top 10 murder rate states for the 
past decade—some for each of the last 21 years. Louisiana had the highest 
murder rate in the country from 2000 to 2018, until it was surpassed by 
Mississippi. Before becoming the state with the highest murder rate in 
2019, Mississippi held the number two spot for 16 years between 2000 and 
2018. Alabama has been in the top 5 for 20 out of the last 21 years. 
South Carolina has been in the top 10 for each of the past 21 years. All 
of these states have voted for the Republican presidential candidate in 
every election since 2000. The red states of Arkansas, Tennessee, and 
Missouri have also consistently been in the top 10 since 2004.

A handful of Biden states have as well, but not to the same degree as 
Trump states. Maryland has been among the top 10 for 20 out of 21 years, 
New Mexico for 16 years, and Georgia for 10 years. States often mentioned 
in the media as crime havens, like California and New York, have not 
graced the top 10 once. New York has never even been in the top 25 for 
murder rates this century.

Between 2000 and 2010, red states and blue states roughly split the top 
10, with four or five of the states being blue. But after 2010, murder 
rates fell in blue states relative to red states. Beginning in 2011, red 
states have held 7 or 8 spots in the top 10 every year.  

The murder rate gap between Trump and Biden states has widened over the 
course of two decades.

Murder rates in Trump states have been increasing at much higher rates 
than Biden states. Back in 2000, murder rates in Trump states were 16% 
higher and fell to a 9% gap in 2003 and 2004. By 2007, the Red State 
murder gap reached 20% and would exceed 20% in every year but one 
thereafter. In 2014, the Red State murder gap exceeded 30% for the first 
time (32% in 2014) and would remain above that threshold throughout. The 
Red State murder gap crossed the threshold of 40% in 2019, when murder 
rates in Trump states were 44% higher than Biden states, before receding 
slightly to 43% in 2020.

Over the period studied, murder rates jumped 39.4% in Trump-voting states 
(6.35 murders/100,000 population in 2000 to 8.84/100,000 in 2020). Murder 
rates increased just 13.4% in Biden-voting states (5.47 murders/100,000 
population in 2000 to 6.20/100,000 in 2020).

Ironically, as the media frenzy over “soft on crime” Democrats reached 
its peak, the Red State murder gap widened to its deepest gulch, contrary 
to the popular narrative.

Ironically, as the media frenzy over “soft on crime” Democrats reached 
its peak, the Red State murder gap widened to its deepest gulch, contrary 
to the popular narrative.

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Even when large cities are removed from red states, murder rates are 
still higher.

Some on the right argue that murder rates in red states are higher 
because of the blue cities in those red states. Of course, blue states 
have more blue urban areas than red states. That is what makes most 
states blue. The fact is that murder rates have increased in urban, 
suburban, and rural areas.

But to answer these critics, we performed an exercise to give red states 
a special boost. For this exercise, we removed all of the murders in the 
county with the largest city for 19 of 25 red states. In six rural red 
states home to no cities with large numbers of murders, this calculation 
was not possible based on available CDC data.2 Blue states would get no 
such advantage. But even with the largest city removed from red states, 
the Red State murder gap persisted.

Over the course of the full 21 years between 2000 and 2020, the Red State 
murder rate was still 12% higher than the Blue State murder rate, even 
when murders in the largest cities in those red states were removed. And 
the murder rate was still higher in 18 of 21 years.

Between 2010 and 2020, even after removing New Orleans and Jackson, 
Louisiana and Mississippi continued to hold the number one and two spots 
for highest murder rates. Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, 
and Tennessee were still consistently in the top 10 after removing their 
largest city.

In 2020, the states with the highest murder rates stayed roughly the same 
after making this change: Mississippi in first, then Louisiana, Alabama, 
South Carolina, Missouri, Illinois, Maryland, Arkansas, Tennessee, and 
Georgia.
Why are Murder Rates Persistently Higher in Red States?

Crime and murder are complicated issues that are, unfortunately, ripe for 
demagoguery. This paper is not intended to provide definitive causes for 
the growing and persistent Red State murder gap; rather it is meant to 
show that it exists. But here are some thoughts on why red states have 
higher murder rates.

    Guns: Gun ownership rates are far higher in red states than blue 
states. Studies have estimated that gun ownership rates are as much as 
twice as high in a typical red state than a typical blue state. Since 79% 
of all homicides are committed with a firearm, it stands to reason that 
more guns will produce more murders, not less.
    Poverty: Studies have found a correlation between poverty and violent 
crime. Red states tend to have higher poverty rates than blue states.
    Educational Attainment: Those who have a high school diploma or less 
tend to be overrepresented among victims and perpetrators of homicide. 
Increasingly, there is an educational attainment gap between red and blue 
states as well.
    Social Service and Police Resources: Despite accusations that 
Democrats “defund the police,” we found that cities with Democratic 
mayors fund police at far higher levels on a per capita basis than cities 
run by Republican mayors. In 2020, the 25 largest Democrat-run cities 
spent 38% more on policing per capita than the 25 largest Republican-run 
cities. In addition, blue states may be more likely to fund social 
service programs that help steer people away from violent crime than red 
states.

Conclusion

On a typical day, about 65 Americans are murdered. If we watch the cable 
networks, we’re likely to hear about one of them. The one that is chosen 
often fits a narrative that is as familiar as it is shallow. It may 
cohere with a political point a network wants to make – chaos in 
Democratic cities, an illegal immigrant committing a brazen and lethal 
act. Usually, it’s a murder in New York City or Los Angeles, two cities 
that actually have murder rates far lower than many states.

These crime stories aren’t inaccurate, but they are curated. And when we 
see them every day they create an impression of crime and murder in 
America that tells only a part of the story. When we released “The Red 
State Murder Problem” in March 2022 showing that murder rates in Trump-
voting states in 2020 were far higher than Biden-voting states, the 
reaction was incredulity. That is because the news stories we see each 
day tell us something different.

But the numbers don’t lie. It is our hope that with this report we can 
create a more accurate political discussion about crime. And perhaps with 
a more holistic political discussion, we can do more to actually reduce 
violent and lethal crime.
Methodology   

We collected murder data for all 50 states from 2000 to 2020. Our primary 
source was the Center of Disease Control Wonder’s National Center for 
Health Statistics Mortality Data. We chose to use CDC data over FBI data 
because it tends to be more accurate. This is because states are required 
to report mortality data to the CDC while states are only encouraged to 
report crime data to the FBI. As mentioned above, there were four states 
that were missing a few years of data in the CDC database. New Hampshire 
was missing data for 2002, North Dakota was missing data for 2001, 2002, 
and 2008, Vermont was missing data for 2002 and 2009-2013, and Wyoming 
was missing data for 2006 and 2010. For these, we used FBI data. Using 
the CDC data and population data from the US Census Bureau, we calculated 
the per capita murder rate for each state for every year. We split states 
into “red” and “blue” states based on their vote in the 2020 Presidential 
election—Trump versus Biden. For each year, we averaged the number of 
homicides and populations for “red” and “blue” states and calculated the 
average per capita murder rate. When we removed the largest cities from 
red states, we removed the following counties: Alabama- Madison County 
(Huntsville), Arkansas- Pulaski County (Little Rock), Kentucky- Jefferson 
County (Louisville), Louisiana- Orleans Parish (New Orleans), 
Mississippi- Hinds County (Jackson), Missouri- Jackson County (Kansas 
City), South Carolina- Charleston County (Charleston), Tennessee- 
Davidson County (Nashville), Alaska- Anchorage Borough (Anchorage), 
Florida- Duval County (Jacksonville), Indiana- Marion County 
(Indianapolis), Kansas- Sedgwick County (Wichita), Nebraska- Douglas 
County (Omaha), North Carolina- Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), Ohio- 
Franklin County (Columbus), Oklahoma- Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City), 
Texas- Harris County (Houston), Utah- Salt Lake County (Salt Lake City), 
West Virginia- Kanawha County (Charleston). The following states had less 
than 10 murders in their largest city (the CDC doesn’t disclose murders 
under 10 for privacy reasons): Idaho, Iowa, Montana, North Dakota, South 
Dakota, and Wyoming. Data is attached.