From: R Kym Horsell <kymhorsell@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: alt.global-warming,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,can.politics,alt.politics.liberalism,alt.politics.democrats,alt.politics.usa.republican
Subject: us billion dollar floods doubling every 30y due to no-one knows why
Date: Sat, 2 Nov 2024 16:12:13 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: kymhorsell.com
Apropos that mess on the plain in Spain, I looked again at the latest numbers
for the US.
No-one guess whether the areas of the US least willing or able to pay for
the damage are affected most. Naturally, the climate-dumb states are
the ones needing the most financial support to recover from each
superflood. Around now there are 3 per year. But the Dept of Commerce data
shows the rate of big disaster floods is doubling each 30y or even faster.
The typical American pays about $2300 for their annual gas usage.
They pay another approx $2800 in direct and indirect subsidies to
the fossil sector for the cheap gas. Think of a few billion
for annual flood damage just another item on the bill.
While some NOAA data looks at "all floods" and may get a bit confusing
because a big component of that are specialised events like coastal
floods and other sunny day type events -- the tabulation for
floods that caused more than $1 bn in damage (CPI adj to 2024 dollars here)
isolate just a few events each year. But the number of strongly increasing
over time. It's illegal in 20 states to say why.
The basic data since 1980 -- when the Dept of Commerce started taking
close attention because of 100s of deaths from weather disasters that year --
looks like this:
Year #bndollarfloods
1980 1
1981 1
1982 2
1983 1
1984 1
1985 1
1986 2
1990 1
1993 1
1994 1
1995 1
1996 3
1997 4
1998 2
2000 1
2006 1
2007 1
2008 1
2009 1
2010 3
2011 2
2013 2
2014 2
2015 3
2016 4
2017 2
2019 3
2020 1
2021 2
2022 2
2023 3
If you adjust these numbers to calculate an annual rate of floods
by calculating
flood rate = ((number prev year + number next year)/2 + number this year)/2
you get the following:
Year bndollarfloodrate (events per year)
1980 1.5
1981 1.25
1982 1.5
1983 1.25
1984 1
1985 1.25
1986 0.6
1990 0.357143
1993 0.5
1994 1
1995 1.5
1996 2.75
1997 3.25
1998 1.5
2000 0.3125
2006 0.285714
2007 1
2008 1
2009 1.5
2010 2.25
2011 1.5
2013 1.33333
2014 2.25
2015 3
2016 3.25
2017 1.83333
2019 1.5
2020 1.75
2021 1.75
2022 2.25
2023 4
which a timeseries regression finds has a doubling rate every ~27 years.
Roughly, 100 years ago there were almost 0 billion dollar floods
per year in the US, but now there are around 4. The parallel between
the flooding rate and e.g. global temperatures or levels of fossil
pollution is beyond chance, let's say.
Durbin-Watson d = 0.819698
d < dL (1.472105): Positive auto-corr at 5%
(Serial corr detected; estimated rho = 0.506615).
y = 2.38377904e-22*exp(2.50592302e-02*x)
Doubling Time 27.66
beta in 0.0250592 +- 0.0173335 (90% CI)
alpha in -49.7882 +- 17.1554
T-tests on beta:
T-test: P(beta>0) = 0.989821
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.672080
Crit val = 0.432 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.17764076
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