From: Governor Swill <governor.swill@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: alt.global-warming,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,can.politics,alt.politics.liberalism,alt.politics.democrats,alt.politics.usa.republican
Subject: Re: us billion dollar floods doubling every 30y due to no-one knows why
Organization: Easynews - www.easynews.com
Date: Sat, 02 Nov 2024 22:37:21 -0400
On Sat, 2 Nov 2024 16:12:13 -0000 (UTC), R Kym Horsell <kymhorsell@gmail.com>
wrote:
>Apropos that mess on the plain in Spain, I looked again at the latest numbers
>for the US.
>
>No-one guess whether the areas of the US least willing or able to pay for
>the damage are affected most. Naturally, the climate-dumb states are
>the ones needing the most financial support to recover from each
>superflood. Around now there are 3 per year. But the Dept of Commerce data
>shows the rate of big disaster floods is doubling each 30y or even faster.
>
>The typical American pays about $2300 for their annual gas usage.
>They pay another approx $2800 in direct and indirect subsidies to
>the fossil sector for the cheap gas. Think of a few billion
>for annual flood damage just another item on the bill.
>
>While some NOAA data looks at "all floods" and may get a bit confusing
>because a big component of that are specialised events like coastal
>floods and other sunny day type events -- the tabulation for
>floods that caused more than $1 bn in damage (CPI adj to 2024 dollars here)
>isolate just a few events each year. But the number of strongly increasing
>over time. It's illegal in 20 states to say why.
>
>The basic data since 1980 -- when the Dept of Commerce started taking
>close attention because of 100s of deaths from weather disasters that year --
>looks like this:
>
>
If these are not inflation adjusted dollars, the only thing they prove is your
dedication to your POV.
>Year #bndollarfloods
>1980 1
>1981 1
>1982 2
>1983 1
>1984 1
>1985 1
>1986 2
>1990 1
>1993 1
>1994 1
>1995 1
>1996 3
>1997 4
>1998 2
>2000 1
>2006 1
>2007 1
>2008 1
>2009 1
>2010 3
>2011 2
>2013 2
>2014 2
>2015 3
>2016 4
>2017 2
>2019 3
>2020 1
>2021 2
>2022 2
>2023 3
>
>If you adjust these numbers to calculate an annual rate of floods
>by calculating
>flood rate = ((number prev year + number next year)/2 + number this year)/2
>you get the following:
>
>Year bndollarfloodrate (events per year)
>1980 1.5
>1981 1.25
>1982 1.5
>1983 1.25
>1984 1
>1985 1.25
>1986 0.6
>1990 0.357143
>1993 0.5
>1994 1
>1995 1.5
>1996 2.75
>1997 3.25
>1998 1.5
>2000 0.3125
>2006 0.285714
>2007 1
>2008 1
>2009 1.5
>2010 2.25
>2011 1.5
>2013 1.33333
>2014 2.25
>2015 3
>2016 3.25
>2017 1.83333
>2019 1.5
>2020 1.75
>2021 1.75
>2022 2.25
>2023 4
>
>which a timeseries regression finds has a doubling rate every ~27 years.
>Roughly, 100 years ago there were almost 0 billion dollar floods
>per year in the US, but now there are around 4. The parallel between
>the flooding rate and e.g. global temperatures or levels of fossil
>pollution is beyond chance, let's say.
>
>Durbin-Watson d = 0.819698
>d < dL (1.472105): Positive auto-corr at 5%
>(Serial corr detected; estimated rho = 0.506615).
>y = 2.38377904e-22*exp(2.50592302e-02*x)
>Doubling Time 27.66
>beta in 0.0250592 +- 0.0173335 (90% CI)
>alpha in -49.7882 +- 17.1554
>T-tests on beta:
>T-test: P(beta>0) = 0.989821
>Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.672080
> Crit val = 0.432 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
>r2 = 0.17764076
Adjusted for inflation?
--
#nevertrump
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