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No Increase In Climate Disasters Despite Record CO2

A Quarter-Century of Data Exposes The Gap Between Climate Rhetoric And Real-World Disaster Trends

In previous articles, I've delved into the discourse surrounding climate-related natural disasters and their purported increase due to rising greenhouse gas emissions. Today, I aim to update this 
analysis with the most recent data from 2024, a year that mainstream media (MSM) has widely proclaimed as the hottest on record. For instance, The Guardian reported that two-thirds of the Earth's 
surface experienced record-breaking heat in 2024, attributing this to human-induced climate change.

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Analyzing the EM-DAT Data:
EM-DAT, maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), offers a comprehensive global record of natural and technological disasters. Focusing on climate-related events, 
specifically floods, droughts, extreme temperatures, storms, and wildfires, I observed that from 2000 to 2022, the frequency of these events remained relatively stable. Contrary to popular belief, 
certain years in the early 2000s even recorded higher counts than more recent years.

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This finding is particularly intriguing given that the 21st century has seen unprecedented CO2 emissions and supposedly some of the hottest years on record. If the widely accepted narrative held 
true, we would expect a corresponding increase in climate-related natural disasters. The absence of such a trend in the EM-DAT data suggests that the relationship between GHG emissions, rising global 
temperatures, and the frequency of these disasters is more complex than often portrayed.

Understanding Pre-2000 Data and Reporting Biases:

It's essential to address the quality and reliability of disaster data, especially from periods before 2000. EM-DAT acknowledges that pre-2000 records are subject to significant reporting biases. The 
apparent increase in reported disasters starting from the 1960s coincides with the establishment of organizations like the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) in 1964 and the creation 
of CRED in 1973.

These institutions improved disaster reporting and data collection methodologies. Additionally, advancements in communication technologies, such as the advent of personal computers and the internet, 
have enhanced our ability to document and report events. Consequently, many smaller or less-publicized disasters prior to 2000 were likely underreported or omitted, leading EM-DAT to recommend 
caution when interpreting pre-2000 data. In fact, since September 2023, EM-DAT has classified all pre-2000 data as "Historic" to denote its lesser reliability.

Note: The difference observed in my plot is a result of the removal of non-climate-related phenomena such as earthquakes.

Defining a Disaster According to EM-DAT:
To contextualize the data, it's crucial to understand how EM-DAT defines a disaster. According to their criteria, a disaster is an unforeseen and often sudden event that causes significant damage, 
destruction, and human suffering, overwhelming local capacity and necessitating external assistance at the national or international level. This definition encompasses a wide range of events but sets 
specific thresholds for inclusion in the database. For an event to be recorded in EM-DAT, it must meet at least one of the following criteria:

Ten or more people reported killed

One hundred or more people reported affected

Declaration of a state of emergency

Call for international assistance

These thresholds ensure that only significant events are cataloged, but they may also exclude smaller-scale disasters, especially in regions with limited reporting capabilities.

Focusing on Climate-Related Events:
In my analysis, I concentrated solely on climate-related natural disasters, deliberately excluding technological events, epidemics, and geophysical occurrences like earthquakes. This focus aligns 
with the prevalent narrative that links GHG emissions and global warming specifically to an increase in climate-related events. By isolating these categories, the analysis directly addresses the 
claims that such disasters have escalated in frequency due to human-induced climate change.

Challenging the Mainstream Narrative:
Despite the EM-DAT data, mainstream media and authoritative bodies continue to assert that extreme weather events are increasing due to climate change. For instance, a recent article in The Guardian 
emphasized that we are living in an era of extreme weather, citing rampant wildfires, floods, and other natural disasters displacing countless individuals.


Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2025/feb/15/extreme-weather-new-reality-wildfires-floods-droughts
Similarly, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated... 


Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-the-new-ipcc-report-says-about-extreme-weather-and-climate-change/
These assertions contribute to a pervasive belief that climate-related disasters are on the rise, a narrative that is not substantiated by the EM-DAT data.

The Symbiotic Relationship Perpetuating the Narrative:
The persistence of this narrative can be attributed to a symbiotic relationship among funding agencies, governmental institutions, climate scientists, and the MSM. Research funding is often directed 
toward studies that emphasize the adverse impacts of climate change, incentivizing scientists to focus on alarming scenarios. Governmental bodies, in turn, utilize these studies to justify policy 
decisions and regulatory measures. The media amplifies these messages, as sensational stories about extreme weather and impending disasters attract readership and viewership.


This cycle reinforces the perception of a direct and escalating link between GHG emissions and climate-related natural disasters, despite empirical data suggesting otherwise.

Conclusion:
It's imperative to critically assess the prevailing narratives surrounding climate change and natural disasters. The EM-DAT records indicate that, contrary to widespread claims, there has not been an 
increase in climate-related natural disasters over the past 25 years.

In light of these findings, it's essential to question the motivations behind the perpetuation of this narrative and to seek a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between human activities 
and natural disasters.


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February:

Deep Freeze Grips Central Europe

Long-Standing Records Fall Across America

One Of Antarctica's Earliest -60c's On Record

Record Cold Czech Republic

Northern Hemisphere Snow Above Average

Japan's Resorts At 20+ Feet

Antarctica Nears -60c

Cold Records Begin Falling Across U.S.

Canada Breaks Long-Standing Benchmarks

Montreal's Historic Snowfall

Australia Cools

Drop In Albedo Hunga Tonga Hunga Hai'apai Causing Warming?

"Life-Threatening Cold" Enters The U.S.

Record February Cold Grips Australia

Poland To -41.1c (-42f)

Vostok At -57.4c (-71.3f)

Utah Sets Coldest-Ever Temperature

Orilla On Brink Of Historic Snowfall Record

Japan's Snow Continues To Impress

Antarctica At -55.1c (-67.2f)

The Climate Racket Is Collapsing

Big Gains On Greenland

Antarctic Below -50c (-58f)

Records Fall Across The Northwest

Record Snow Destroys Japan's Apple Orchards

Cold Sends Romania's Gas Prices Soaring

"The Freezer Door Is About To Be Opened (Again!)"

Saudi Arabia's Rare Freeze

Japan's Record Snow Turns Deadly

America's Coldest January Since 1988

Record Uptick In Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent

Snow Records Continue To Fall Across Japan

Intense Freeze Sweeps S. Korea

MP's Rare Chill

Turkey's Record Gas Consumption Amid Big Freeze

Record Cold Grips B.C.

Arctic Blast To Wallop The U.S.

Heavy Snow Hits Iran

Himachal Pradesh Suffers Intense Lows/Snows

Rare Low-Elevation Flurries In Taiwan

Japan Ski Resort Surpasses 20 Feet

Antarctic Sea Ice Recovery: Climate Models In Crisis

Concordia At -48.5c (-55.3f)

Arctic Outbreak Round Two

New Nature Study: No Slow Down In Amoc

NOAA Data Practices Investigated

Global Temperatures Cool Significantly In January

Record Snows Persist In Japan

No Sea-Level Rise Since 1800s

Blizzards On Sakhalin

Finland Nears -40c (-40f)

Record February Cold Threatens Northern China

All-Time Snow Totals Sweep Japan

4 Feet In 3 Days Buries The Alps

Stable Temperatures In Greenland, Study Finds

Arctic Blast To Slam The U.S.

Sakhalin Blizzards

Scientists Say Global Warming Could Cool The UK

Snow In Japan Exceeds 17 Feet

Another "Polar Express" Looms For The U.S.

Cold Chokes Spanish Vegetables

NASA Removes Past Temperature Data