Davin News Server

On Sun, 23 Feb 2025 15:19:57 -0800
Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> wrote:

> On 2025-02-23 15:12, Mercy-a-lago wrote:
> > On Sun, 23 Feb 2025 14:51:17 -0800
> > Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> wrote:
> >  =20
> >> On 2025-02-23 14:15, Mercy-a-lago wrote: =20
> >>> On Sun, 23 Feb 2025 14:03:11 -0800
> >>> Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> wrote:
> >>>     =20
> >>>> On 2025-02-23 13:33, Mercy-a-lago wrote: =20
> >>>>> On Sun, 23 Feb 2025 12:26:50 -0800
> >>>>> Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> wrote:
> >>>>>        =20
> >>>>>> On 2025-02-23 11:47, Mercy-a-lago wrote: =20
> >>>>>>> On Sun, 23 Feb 2025 10:53:38 -0800
> >>>>>>> Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> wrote:
> >>>>>>>           =20
> >>>>>>>>> What do you have against easier navigation and passage?
> >>>>>>>>>              =20
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> First of all, let's be clear:
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Are you admitting that it is happening?
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Because the only way you get "easier navigation and passage"
> >>>>>>>> is if the Arctic gets to ice-free. =20
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Which has happened, due to jet stream perturbations. =20
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Name a SINGLE TIME that ANY PASSAGE through the Arctic has been
> >>>>>> ice free. =20
> >>>>>
> >>>>> That's your necessity for "easier navigation and passage"  - not
> >>>>> mine. =20
> >>>>
> >>>> You claimed the the Arctic being "ice-free" "has happened".
> >>>>
> >>>> Clue time: it hasn't. =20
> >>>
> >>> It's gone to as low as 25%, possibly less for a short time - close
> >>> enough. =20
> >> Not for navigation and passage it's not. =20
> >=20
> > Your polar navigation resume is where? =20
>=20
> Commercial vessels cannot pass through the Arctic ice pack.

Why do you do this to yourself?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shipping_routes

Arctic shipping routes are the maritime paths used by vessels to
navigate through parts or the entirety of the Arctic. There are three
main routes that connect the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans: the
Northeast Passage, the Northwest Passage, and the mostly unused
Transpolar Sea Route.[2] In addition, two other significant routes
exist: the Northern Sea Route, and the Arctic Bridge

The Northeast Passage (NEP) is relatively easier owing to lower overall
ice extent and open water in the Barents Sea. Unlike similar latitudes
in Alaska or in Canada, this area remains ice-free due to currents of
warm water from the Gulf Stream, feeding into the North Atlantic. For
both the NSR and NEP, in summer months the sea ice recedes more quickly
compared to the NWP area. This characteristic has become more notable
since the early 2000s due to successive low-records of ice age,
thickness and extension


> This is not highly specialized and/or secret knowledge.

And yet somehow you fell flat on your foolish face:

The economic viability of the Arctic routes does not only depend on
their time efficiency; as a review commissioned by the UK government
points out, there are many costs to be considered. Firstly, the review
notes that Russia imposes tariffs on the NSR, the most used shipping
route because of its favourable ice conditions, as opposed to Canada
that imposes no tariffs on the use of the NWP, which, however, has
worse ice conditions. The TSR can also be considered as an attractive
prospect in the future, if the Arctic sea ice recedes considerably.


https://arctic-council.org/news/types-of-ships-operating-in-the-arctic/

Fishing vessels in Arctic waters

Fishing vessels accounted for 729 ships in the Arctic Polar Code area
in 2022. The majority of these (77%) are vessels for catching fish
whose method is other than trawling, such as long liners, purse seiners
and others. Fish factory ships accounted for 20% of total fishing
vessels, which includes trawlers and vessels fitted out with a factory
for refrigerating, processing and possibly canning. Other less frequent
fishing vessels include fish carriers, fishery patrol vessels, fishery
research vessels and seal catchers.=20

Cargo ships in Arctic waters

Cargo ships accounted for 182 ships in the Arctic Polar Code area in 2022. =
The majority of these (82%) are general cargo ships with a single or multi =
deck for the carriage of various types of dry cargo, where cargo is loaded =
and unloaded through weather deck hatches. The second most common type were=
 deck cargo ships (15%), which are vessels arranged for carrying unitized c=
argo on deck only. Just two cargo ships were classified as heavy load carri=
ers, which are vessels able to carry heavy and/or outsized individual cargo=
s.

Bulk Carriers in Arctic waters

Bulk carriers transport cargo in specially designated compartments. The thr=
ee major bulk cargoes worldwide are iron ore, coal and grain.

There were 114 bulk carriers in the Arctic Polar Code area in 2022. The maj=
ority of bulk carriers (94%) were single deck cargo vessels with an arrange=
ment of topside ballast tanks for the carriage of bulk dry cargo of a homog=
enous nature. Six bulk carriers were ore/oil carriers constructed for the a=
lternative carriage of crude oil.

Cruise ships and tourism

Cruise ships are mainly used for tourism and typically embark on roundtrip =
voyages, stopping at various ports where passengers can take part in shore =
excursions. Cruise ships often enter the Arctic waters area several times e=
ach year. For example, in 2022, 78 cruise ships made 250 entries into the A=
rctic Polar Code area. Cruise ships accounted for five percent of unique sh=
ips in the Arctic Polar Code area in 2022.

Natural resources and ships in the Arctic
Natural resource exploration is one of the drivers for shipping in the Arct=
ic. Ships involved in this work made up 18% of unique ships in the Arctic P=
olar Code area in 2022. This includes:

Bulk carriers, 114 ships
Chemical tankers, 55 ships
Oil product tankers, 51 ships
Offshore supply ships, 29 ships
Gas tankers, 26 ships
Crude oil tankers, 16 ships
Other ship types are also likely to support natural resource
exploration, including tugboats and icebreakers.


> >    =20
> >> But moreover, the world isn't in desperate need of "navigation and
> >> passage" through the Arctic. =20
> >=20
> > Why so expansive a metric as "the world"?
> >=20
> > That's a strawman. =20
> So who needs it?

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-023-03568-3

Declining sea ice has also increased the accessibility of marine
shipping routes (Smith and Stephenson 2013). Strengthened integration
between Arctic and global economies has also facilitated increased
vessel traffic for resource development (Larsen and Huskey 2015;
Brigham 2021). Together, these changes have created a metacoupled
Arctic that is highly interconnected with global systems

We now know that Arctic vessel traffic has been increasing in recent
years, with the number of ships operating in Arctic waters and the
total distance travelled growing by approximately 25% and 75%,
respectively, between 2013 and 2019 (PAME 2020).=20

AIS transponders are required on all passenger vessels, all cargo
vessels over 500 gross tons, and all vessels over 300 gross tons on an
international voyage (IMO 2002). When operational, AIS transponders
project signals at a maximum interval of every 2 min (and more
frequently when the vessel is underway). These signals are received by
other vessels, terrestrial receivers, and/or satellite-based receivers.
The higher resolution of the AIS data used in this analysis represents
an improvement upon previous studies that have analyzed ship locations
within sea ice which used imputed track lines between once-daily
locations (Pizzolato et al. 2016).

We repeated this process for all vessel types combined and also for
four vessel type subsets (cargo, tanker, fishing, and other vessels).
Following the methods of Kapsar et al. (2022b), we designated vessel
types using the two-digit code transmitted in static AIS transmission.
In this method, =E2=80=9COther=E2=80=9D vessels include all vessels not exp=
licitly
falling into one of the three types (cargo, fishing, tanker). The
=E2=80=9COther=E2=80=9D designation thus includes research vessels, tugs, p=
assenger
ships, search and rescue vessels, and ice breakers.