From: Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com>
Newsgroups: alt.global-warming,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,can.politics,alt.politics.liberalism,alt.politics.democrats,alt.politics.usa.republican
Subject: Re: Trump Has A Sharpie, And Was EXACTLY Right About Hurricane Dorian
Date: Sun, 2 Mar 2025 12:41:42 -0800
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
On 2025-03-01 16:43, AlleyCat wrote:
>
> On Sat, 1 Mar 2025 12:18:19 -0800, Alan says...
>
>>> What, EXACTLY, was he trying to convey and WHY?
>>
>> He made an error.
>
> WHAT "error"?
He stated:
'In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and
Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated.'
He stated that on September 1, 2019 at 10:51am EST.
At that time, the latest available track information for Dorian looked
like this:
<https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iSigs7UM-fbcUS8O8NWcB2dJd9ZcHnEb/view?usp=share_link>
You can see that for yourself here:
<https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line>
>
> The NOAA backed him up. It was no error... this was no boating
> accident. And it wasn't any propeller. It wasn't any coral reef. And
> it wasn't Jack the Ripper. It was a hurricane.
The probability of Alabama being hit by winds as I as
"tropical-storm-force winds" (i.e. ">= 39mph") as less than 10%.
That's reflected in this graphic:
<https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pL5HYtwQqrGgTCvG4vSKYwKWuhgbf5nk/view?usp=share_link>
Which comes from THIS site:
<https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_34_F120>
So on the day he made the tweet, there was a SMALL chance that Alabama
would be "hit" by high winds.
But that's not hurricane force winds, is it?
Raise the wind speed to the next level that NOAA charts (i.e. >=58mph),
and by 8am EST there was essentially no chance that Alabama would be
experiencing winds of that speed...
<https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_50_F120>
...and that's STILL not hurricane force winds.
Hurricane force winds are windows of speeds greater than or equal to
64kts...
...and guess what: NOAA tracks hurricane force winds!
<https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_64_F120>
At 8am, Sunday, September 1, 2019--just under 3 hours before Trump made
his erroneous tweet--there was ZERO chance that any hurricane force
winds would impact Alabama.
>
> Why are you being such a chicken shit? If Trump had had the latest
> path "report", then WHY would have used the map they gave him, and
> WHY would he draw a cone that simply extended the path HE thought
> the hurricane was on?
Because he's a narcissistic liar who can't possibly imagine just
admitting he made a mistake.
>
> WHY would Trump, IF he had updated reports, CARE if Dorian MIGHT hit
> Alabama and Mississippi?
>
> There was NOTHING to gain, politically.
He made a mistake.
>
> I'm not going to come off this.
>
> Tell us WHY. WHY did Trump DO this, in the first place. And
> secondly, WHY does it matter? He made no error. The NOAA backed him
> up. With the information he had, he simply drew an extended cone.
> HAD Dorian not changed course, there would NOT have been a big deal,
> but those with TDS can't stop making fun of nothing.
The NOAA was playing political games.
When Trump tweeted the National Weather Service said this:
âWe repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across
Alabama. The system will remain too far east.â
>
>> The problem is that he didn't want to ADMIT to having made an
>> error.
>
> There WAS no "error".
There was an error.
>
> His staff didn't give him updated information, so he was spot on,
> with what he had.
Then just say that.
Instead, he doctored up a chart from 3 and a half days before his tweet
with a Sharpie.