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Democrats Racially Diverse; Republicans Mostly White

Democrats and independents grow more diverse since 2008
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 89% of Republican self-
identifiers nationwide in 2012, while accounting for 70% of independents and 
60% of Democrats. Over one-fifth of Democrats (22%) were black, while 16% of 
independents were Hispanic.

Racial and Ethnic Composition of U.S., by Party ID, 2012

These results are based on more than 338,000 interviews conducted as part of 
Gallup Daily tracking in 2012, and clearly underscore the distinct racial 
profiles of partisan groups in today's political landscape.

    Republicans are overwhelmingly non-Hispanic white, at a level that is 
significantly higher than the self-identified white percentage of the 
national adult population. Just 2% of Republicans are black, and 6% are 
Hispanic.
    Seventy percent of Americans who identify as independents are white, but 
independents have the highest representation of Hispanics (16%) of the three 
groups. Eight percent of independents are blacks.
    Democrats remain a majority white party, but four in 10 Democrats are 
something other than non-Hispanic white. More than one in five Democrats are 
black, roughly twice the black representation in the adult population.

Racial and Ethnic Groups Gravitate Toward Different Parties

Looked at differently, these party composition patterns reflect major 
differences in the way Americans in various racial and ethnic groups identify 
their political affiliation.

    Almost two-thirds of blacks identify as Democrats, with most of the rest 
identifying as independents. Only 5% of blacks nationwide identify as 
Republicans.
    Half of Hispanics identify as independents, although the majority of the 
rest identify as Democrats. This is despite their high level of approval and 
strong majority voting support for Democratic President Barack Obama. 
Relatively few Hispanics (13%) identify as Republicans.
    Whites are the most politically diverse of the three major racial and 
ethnic segments, with between 26% and 38% identifying with one of the three 
partisan groups. Whites tilt slightly toward being independents or 
Republicans rather than Democrats. The large white concentration of 
Republican identifiers, in short, is caused by a dearth of nonwhites self-
identifying with the GOP, rather than a monolithic Republican orientation 
among whites.

Party ID in U.S. Within Racial and Ethnic Groups 

Although Asians and other races make up a small proportion of the U.S. 
population, the data show that the political pattern they follow is quite 
similar to that of Hispanics: they are most likely to identify as 
independents, second-most likely to identify as Democrats, and least likely 
to identify as Republicans.

Racial Breakdown of Independents and Democrats Has Shifted Most Since 2008

The racial and ethnic composition of the Republican Party today is similar to 
what it was in 2008, the year when Gallup began its daily tracking. There 
have been essentially no changes in the percentage of GOP identifiers who are 
white, black, and Hispanic.

Independents have become more Hispanic since 2008 (and slightly more black), 
while Democrats have become more black and more Hispanic. Phrased 
differently, the independent and Democratic segments of the U.S. population 
are now less white than they were in 2008, reflecting the uptick in the U.S. 
nonwhite population over these five years.
 

One of the more important realities in American politics today is the 
substantial divergence in the racial and ethnic composition of the major 
political parties. Almost nine in 10 Republicans are white, in stark contrast 
to the racial and ethnic composition of the overall adult population. On the 
other hand, the Democratic Party is disproportionately nonwhite.

The future of the two major political parties depends on two factors. The 
first is whether these patterns of party identification change in the years 
ahead. The ability of the Republican Party to make inroads among nonwhites 
has been much discussed in recent months, particularly the GOP's efforts to 
improve on the 13% allegiance that Gallup data show it obtains from 
Hispanics. Another path to growth for the Republican Party would be an 
increase in its penetration into the white sector of the population, only 35% 
of which now identifies as Republican. On the other hand, the Democratic 
Party will grow if it too can extend its identification among whites, and 
maintain or strengthen its position among nonwhites.

A second factor that will affect the future of the political parties in the 
U.S. is straightforward demographics. Projections show that the nonwhite 
proportion of the American adult population will grow in the years ahead. 
This means that if current partisan allegiance patterns prevail, the size of 
the Democratic base will be in a better position to grow than will the 
Republican base.
Survey Methods