From: -hh <recscuba_google@huntzinger.com>
Newsgroups: alt.global-warming,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,can.politics,alt.politics.liberalism,alt.politics.democrats,alt.politics.usa.republican
Subject: Re: When Liberals Are Too Chicken Shit To Look Upon Answers To Their
Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2025 20:23:58 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
On 7/10/25 00:17, AlleyCat wrote:
>
> On Wed, 9 Jul 2025 14:31:43 -0400, -hh says...
>
> "I don't wanna look nothing up, because that would prove you were right, and we can't have that."
Precisely what AlleyCat did.
> We have to ask a bunch of questions that we don't wanna KNOW the answers to, or are near impossible to look up.
Nearly impossible...yet AlleyCat still made their claim.
> Do YOU know where to find the answers to your questions? I might, but I'm not
> playing your faggot liberal games. YOU look it all up
> and YOU answer the questions.
>
> As rich boy Baker likes to say... "eet na my yob."
Because it wasn't my claim (nor Alan's): it was your claim. Of course,
trying to dodge accountability on it damages your reputation, not that
you have much of one.
> Liberal logic, continued: We want to put it on YOU, to see if you make
> a mistake, and if you don't, simply ask another bunch of
> stupid questions, we don't wanna know the answers to.
Nope: its how USENET has functioned for decades.
>
> You liberals' games are too easy to see.
> ...
> Despite an 11% cut to NOAA's National Weather Service staff since 2025, ...
So one can just cut staff .. and there's never any consequences?
Pull my other leg.
> ...timely warnings were issued, with a flood watch 12 hours
> prior and an emergency alert 3 hours before the peak, supported
> by historical data showing effective forecasting even with reduced
> personnel. - Grok
[quote]
Regarding this month's catastrophic flash floods in Kerr County, Texas:
there's been claims made that staff cuts at the National Weather Service
had utterly no effect on the number, timing or quality of the NWS
warnings issued: is this claim supportable?
The claim that National Weather Service (NWS) staff cuts had no effect
on the number, timing, or quality of flash flood warnings issued for the
July 2025 Kerr County, Texas, floods is partially supportable but
requires nuance. Hereâs a critical examination based on available
information:Evidence Supporting the ClaimTimely Issuance of Warnings:
The NWS issued a flood watch for Kerr County at 1:18 p.m. CDT on July 3,
2025, warning of 1â3 inches of rain with isolated areas potentially
seeing 5â7 inches. A flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. on July
4, followed by a flash flood emergency at 4:03 a.m., providing over
three hours of lead time before significant flooding was reported at
4:35 a.m. These warnings were described as timely by multiple experts,
including meteorologist Avery Tomasco, who stated, âThey did their job
and they did it well.â
Adequate Staffing During the Event: The NWS Austin/San Antonio office,
responsible for Kerr County, had five staff members on duty during the
storm, compared to the usual two for an overnight shift, indicating
proactive staffing adjustments. A NOAA spokesperson confirmed that both
the Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo offices were adequately staffed
during the floods. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also
stated that the San Angelo office was fully staffed with 12 forecasters,
and the San Antonio office had 11.
Expert Consensus on Forecast Quality: Several meteorologists, including
John Morales and Matt Lanza, defended the NWS, stating there was no
evidence that staff cuts degraded the anticipatory warnings. Morales
noted, âI donât see any evidence that cuts to NOAA/NWS caused any
degradation in the anticipatory weather warnings ahead of this Texas
tragedy.â Lanza emphasized that the forecasts were as accurate as
possible given the unpredictable nature of localized, extreme rainfall.
Challenges Beyond NWS Control: The extreme rainfallâup to 15 inches in
some areas, far exceeding the forecasted 5â7 inchesâwas difficult to
predict with precision due to the limitations of current meteorological
science. Louis W. Uccellini, former NWS director, noted that such
rainfall rates are inherently hard to forecast. The overnight timing and
the lack of a local flood warning system in Kerr County further
complicated public response, issues unrelated to NWS staffing.
Evidence Challenging the ClaimStaffing Shortages and Coordination
Issues: While the NWS issued timely warnings, staffing cuts may have
impacted post-warning coordination with local officials. The Austin/San
Antonio office was missing a warning coordination meteorologist, a
critical role for liaising with emergency managers, due to early
retirements incentivized by the Trump administrationâs Department of
Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts. The San Angelo office lacked a
permanent meteorologist-in-charge and a senior hydrologist. Former NOAA
administrator Rick Spinrad suggested that the absence of the warning
coordination meteorologist may have hindered follow-up communication,
potentially reducing the effectiveness of warnings reaching the public.
Impact of DOGE Cuts: The NWS lost approximately 600 staff members (out
of 4,200) in 2025 due to DOGE-initiated layoffs, early retirements, and
buyouts, leading to vacancy rates of up to 20% at some offices. While
the Austin/San Antonio office had a 15% meteorologist vacancy rate, and
the overall vacancy rate rose from 12% to 23% by April 2025, experts
like Tom Fahy noted that staffing was sufficient for issuing warnings
but acknowledged that vacant leadership roles posed ongoing concerns.
These shortages could have strained coordination efforts, especially in
a region prone to flash flooding.
Local Communication Failures: Kerr County lacked a robust local flood
warning system, and no alerts were issued through the countyâs CodeRED
system until 90 minutes after the NWSâs flash flood emergency at 4:03
a.m. A firefighterâs request at 4:22 a.m. to alert residents was
delayed, with some messages not reaching the public until 10 a.m. While
this points to local government failures, the absence of NWS personnel
dedicated to coordination may have exacerbated the disconnect, as noted
by former officials.
Broader Context of Cuts: The DOGE cuts reduced weather balloon launches
at some NWS stations, though not at Del Rio, the nearest station to Kerr
County, which operated normally. Critics, including Democrats and former
NWS officials, warned that chronic understaffing and reduced data
collection could degrade future forecasting capabilities, even if the
Kerr County warnings were adequate.
Critical Analysis The NWSâs ability to issue timely and accurate
warnings appears intact, as evidenced by the flood watch, warnings, and
emergency alerts issued with significant lead time. The claim that staff
cuts had no effect on the number, timing, or quality of warnings is
largely supported by the fact that the NWS followed protocol and staffed
up for the event. However, the claim is not fully airtight because the
absence of key personnel, like the warning coordination meteorologist,
may have weakened communication with local officials, potentially
reducing the warningsâ effectiveness. The extreme rainfall and overnight
timing, combined with Kerr Countyâs lack of a local alert system, were
significant factors in the tragedy, arguably overshadowing NWS staffing
issues.
Conclusion: The claim that NWS staff cuts had no effect on the warnings
is mostly supportable for the issuance of warnings, as they were timely
and aligned with available data. However, the cuts likely contributed to
coordination challenges, which may have indirectly affected how warnings
were acted upon locally. The primary failures appear to lie with local
emergency managementâs delayed response and the absence of a county-wide
alert system, rather than the NWSâs forecasting performance. For a
definitive assessment, further investigation into local response
timelines and NWS-local coordination is needed, but the current evidence
suggests the NWS performed adequately despite staffing constraints.
[/quote]
- Grok
TL;DR: having a good forecast is a small consolation when the
information dissemination system is curtailed/system failure.
-hh