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From: AlleyCat <katt@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: alt.global-warming,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,can.politics,alt.politics.liberalism,alt.politics.democrats,alt.politics.usa.republican
Subject: Professor Richard Lindzen on Climate Change: Never Take Yourself So Seriously That You Have To Invent Problems - Part 3 - Computer Models
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2025 07:59:35 -0500
Organization: AlleyCat Computing, Inc.


So models, computer models.

Models are their own story. Models are useful. But not for prediction. The reason they're not good for prediction is we don't know 
the feedbacks, we don't know clouds, we don't know and resolve other things. So they cannot handle processes that are essential. 
They're useful if you're doing theory. You can look at the models and see how things interacted and then focus on those more 
carefully to see whether you understand the interaction. So there is a kind of back and forth between models and theory, and so on. 
But that isn't how they're used.

The issue began with having no science at all. It began, as I said, with global cooling. As long as there was some way this number, 
this crazy number, was showing cooling since from about 1939 to 1973, they said, well, let's say it's cooling. And then you had 
models as well - they were called the Budyko-Sellers models (after Russian and US climatologists Mikhail Budyko and William Sellers 
- HS). All of us liked to play with them. They were cute. They showed that if you reflected light with sulfates enough, the 
original version of the model would give you an ice-covered Earth. That seemed very dramatic. And then people, including us, began 
showing that, well, if you put in something more realistic in the tropics, it stopped there at 30 degrees. And then finally, in my 
course notes, I have a problem where you put into this model the change of seasons, and the model falls apart completely.

So, for the global cooling, you had the model you needed to give a scare story for cooling. But then in '73, in the 70s, it stopped 
cooling. So you needed something else. What was the next thing that came up? It was, again, the energy sector. Acid rain. The 
forest in Germany was dying. Unfortunately, after a few years, the forest stopped dying. So, acid rain was not too useful. People 
tested it. They found it didn't have much impact.

But then they noticed the temperature was increasing, and that they liked. Why did they like it? Because the reason you would give 
for the temperature increasing is that CO2 was increasing. Why did they like CO2? Well, with global cooling, you are worried about 
sulfate aerosols. The trouble with sulfate aerosols is we know how to clean them. We can build a coal plant that has no sulfate 
emissions. Well, what good is that!? CO2 - nothing can stop that. It is the product of any burning, including breathing.

So you generate a lot of CO2. Anything that burns a fossil fuel produces CO2. After you clean every real pollutant out, you still 
have CO2. So this was guaranteed to get rid of any fossil fuel. And that was its attraction. And that's what we've gone with for 
the last, since '88.

And it was interesting... You were a little surprised when I said it began many years ago. In 1988, you had a Senate hearing in the 
US, and you had a man called James Hansen (US climatologist - HS) testifying. He came there and said that increasing CO2 was going 
to cause a lot of warming. And Newsweek had a cover showing the Earth on fire, and it had a label: "All scientists agree". And that 
was very interesting, because at that time, almost no scientists were working on this. People were told all scientists agree. Now, 
think of that from a propaganda point of view. You don't know science, you haven't studied it, most people haven't studied it. Even 
among the people who studied the science, for this problem, a big part of the problem is fluid mechanics. Almost no physicist ever 
studies fluid mechanics. So you have something that hardly anyone has studied. And you're saying: "What am I going to do? I don't 
understand this." You are told all scientists agree. This is a source of comfort. You don't have to understand it. If all 
scientists agree, you can agree, too.

You can watch the video version of the interview here.

https://www.freedom-research.org/p/exclusive-professor-richard-lindzen


=====

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