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New Study: Heatwave-Related Deaths Have Been Declining In Recent Decades

New research highlights how human innovation is outpacing climate change, reducing the dangers of heat waves. A 2025 study 
analyzing European data shows that people adapt to a 1°C rise in annual temperature in under 18 years, leading to fewer heat-
related deaths over time.

This finding is supported by a 2018 study across 10 countries, which documented a clear decline in heat-mortality impacts since the 
1980s.

Too often, climate studies ignore human adaptations like air conditioning and advanced building materials, exaggerating heat risks 
and painting a false picture of increasing danger.

The truth? Cold exposure is the real killer-humans have been 20 times more likely to die from extreme cold than heat since the 
1980s.

Meanwhile, "green" policies promoting heat pumps, which rely less on fossil fuels, could backfire. These systems often fail in 
harsh cold, potentially raising heating costs and vulnerability to cold-related deaths.

As a result, heatwave mortality is expected to keep falling, while cold risks may rise with misguided energy policies.

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New Study: Heatwave-Related Deaths Have Been Declining In Recent Decades

A comprehensive new data analysis (Walkowiak et al., 2025) involving European countries finds it takes less than 18 years for 
humans to adapt to a 1°C increase in mean annual temperature. Consequently, exposure to excessive heat has become less and less 
deadly.

Supporting this conclusion, a 2018 study involving 305 locations across 10 countries (1985-2012) affirmed ?a decrease in heat-
mortality impacts over the past decades,? as ?heat-related mortality [fractions, AFs] decreased in all countries.?
Image Source: Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018

Many heatwave or excess heat mortality studies fail to account for the human capacity to adapt to extremely hot temperatures via 
the expansion of access to air conditioning, heat-shielding structures and building materials, etc.

This (intentional?) failure artificially inflates modern heat exposure risks so as to make it appear heat wave mortality has become 
more and more of a problem.

The real risk is cold exposure. Since the 1980s humans have been 20 times more likely to die from exposure to excessively cold 
temperatures than to excessive heat.

So-called ?green? policies that insist on adding heat pumps to homes (due to their lower dependence on fossil fuels) impose more 
risks to humans, as heat pumps notoriously cannot keep structures warm enough during cold spells.

As heating demand and costs rise, there will likely be more susceptibility to cold-related deaths in the future. In contrast, 
heatwave-related mortality will likely continue to decline.
Image Source: Walkowiak et al., 2025

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/08/04/new-study-heatwave-related-deaths-have-been-declining-in-recent-decades/

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August:

Global Temperatures Continue To Drop
Australia Record Cold, Snow, And Power Failures
Arctic Sea Ice Doing Fine
2025 In The U.S. Is Running Cool
Perth Chills, Sydney Shivers
Southern Hemisphere Slammed Into Winter
European Alps Freeze
Kenya's Cold Sends Power Demand To Record Highs
USA Today Cries 'Extreme Heat' - Forecast Shows Anomalous Cold
Alps See Snow As Europe Holds Cold
Magnitude 8.8 Quake Rattles Kamchatka
Medieval Antarctica Was Warmer, Study 
Europe's "Dog Days" Feel Like Autumn
Snow Returns to WA as Cockatoos Freeze in the Victorian Alps
Australia's Snow Season Delivers
Record Cold Up North
Europe Set For Historic Lows With A Foot Of Snow Over The Alps
Global Temperatures Continue To Slide 
Perth Shivers
Western Europe Chills
Summer Snow At Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
Alberta Town Breaks 118-Year Cold Record
The Butterfly Panic Narrative Falls Apart
Exceptional July Cold Grips Russia
N. California's Coldest Summer
Antarctic Fronts To Sweep Australia
New Zealand Nears All-Time July Lows
West Arctic Sea Ice Higher Than 1981
Greenland Overrun
Cyclone Activity At Record Lows
+ Extreme Weather Deaths At An All-Time Low 
Record July Cold in Yakutia and Beyond
Cooler 2025 For The U.S.
New Study On Urban Heat
+ Solar Quiet, But X-Flare Risk Remains
July 21, 2025 Cap Allon6 Comments	
Record Cold Sweeps Parts Of The U.S.
Ross Ice Shelf To -60C (-76F)
The North Atlantic Is Cooling
+ Warming Pause In Australia
United States 3.6F Below Average
Thwaites Glacier Hysteria
"Homogenization": The Past Must Be Cooled
+ Solar Shockwaves
Polar Cold Slams Northern Rockies
Germany's Worst Floods Were Centuries Ago
Africa's Sea Levels Were 1m Higher 2,000 Years Ago
+ Volcanic Activity Surges