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A recent Guardian article and UN Secretary-General António Guterres push 
alarmist claims that breaching 1.5°C warming will trigger catastrophic climate 
"tipping points" in places like the Amazon, Arctic, and oceans. But science 
shows this is baseless fear-mongering.

Start with the Amazon: Guterres warns it could turn into a Savannah, but 
there's no evidence for this. Recent droughts aren't historically unusual or 
worse than past events. Deforestation, not climate change, is the real threat 
to tree cover.

In the Arctic, claims of rapid ice loss are exaggerated. Sea ice extent has 
been stable since 2010, with natural cycles of waxing and waning, not a 
downward spiral toward collapse.

For oceans, Guterres fears coral reef die-offs from warming and acidification, 
but corals are resilient. Paleo-records show they've survived far greater 
changes, and many reefs are expanding today.

The 1.5°C "threshold" is a political invention, not a scientific one, set by a 
small German advisory group with little meteorological expertise. We already 
passed it in 2024 during El Nino with no disasters, proving it's arbitrary.

Guterres and The Guardian are using hype to push agendas ahead of COP30, 
ignoring real science and history. This is just more unfounded alarmism for 
political leverage.

========================================================

The Guardian and Guterres Are Wrong: Science Shows No Climate 'Tipping Points'
By Linnea Lueken

A recent article in The Guardian, "Change course now: humanity has missed 1.5C 
climate target, says UN head," claims that the planet is in grave danger of 
passing climate "tipping points," as it is now inevitable that 1.5°C warming 
will be breached. Although 1.5? of warming may be locked in if not already 
surpassed, the claim that it signifies a dangerous milestone is false. Not 
only is the tipping points narrative bunk, but there is no evidence that 1.5°C 
warming is any particular threat. The purported temperature threshold was 
chosen arbitrarily and for political reasons rather than scientific ones.

The Guardian's story focuses on comments made by United Nations Secretary 
General António Guterres, who in advance of the COP30 climate summit in 
Brazil, warned that it is "inevitable" that 1.5°C of warming will be breached, 
and it will result in 'devastating consequences" for the planet. The Guardian 
says Guterres "urged the leaders who will gather in the Brazilian rain-forest 
city of Belém to realize that the longer they delay cutting emissions, the 
greater the danger of passing catastrophic "tipping points" in the Amazon, the 
Arctic, and the oceans."

There is no scientific basis for any so-called tipping points, and claiming 
otherwise is just fear-mongering for political gain.
GUARDIAN-NONSENSE

Beginning with the Amazon rain-forest, the location of the next climate summit 
in November, Guterres reportedly warned that it could become a "Savannah," or 
a dry grassland. There is no evidence for this absurd claim. Like Guterres' 
previous "boiling oceans" comment, it is purely fanciful hyperbole lacking any 
basis in fact. Guterres is referencing a period of drought suffered by parts 
of the Amazon basin in recent years, but that drought has not been 
historically unusual, and the recent localized areas of drought have not been 
more severe than previous drought periods. As discussed in the Climate Realism 
post "Media Outlets Continue Spreading False Amazon "Record Drought" Claims," 
the Amazon has experienced periods of heavy rain and extended drought in the 
past that were worse than those we see now. Historic records do not show any 
worsening of drought in the Amazon. The threat that impacts tree cover is 
deforestation and clear cutting, not climate change.

The Arctic is also not approaching any dangerous tipping point. Should warming 
continue, ice extent will likely shrink, but it has not been happening at 
nearly as fast a rate as alarmists claim. Arctic sea ice extent has been 
stable since about 2010, indicating a new ice extent regime, and there is no 
telling how long that will last. If the past is any guide, sea ice might begin 
expanding again, as it has waxed and waned historically.

Finally, the ocean tipping point Guterres is referring to is the claim that 
coral reefs will die out as a result of ocean pH changes and higher 
temperatures, but again, science and paleo-history shows that corals are 
resilient to changes that are much more extreme than the modest warming of 
recent decades. As discussed repeatedly at Climate Realism, the world's oceans 
are not at risk of becoming acidic and coral reefs are expanding their range 
and setting records for growth.

It is true that the "1.5°C threshold" is likely to be passed. But that does 
not mean anything, certainly nothing catastrophic. The 1.5°C warming limit was 
already passed in 2024 because of the El Nino conditions-with no cataclysm. 
This should not be of concern to anyone, because that limit is not a 
scientifically established value. The Guardian fearmongered about it in the 
past, which Climate Realism addressed here, and seems to have learned nothing. 
The 1.5°C number was arbitrary; established by an 11 member German political 
advisory board containing only one meteorologist. It is not a hard scientific 
threshold the way the boiling point of water is, though alarmists 
inappropriately treat it that way.

Guterres' comments are not based on science, data, or even history. He is 
simply attempting to worry the public, with The Guardian's complicity, in 
order to gain political leverage for negotiations at COP 30 even as a growing 
number of countries are downplaying climate concerns in the realistic 
assessment that other issues are more pressing and fossil fuels, for now, 
remain vital to prosperity.

The only tipping point I've passed is confidence in anything coming out of the 
United Nations.

I would consider the Great Oxygenation Event the only tipping point that has 
actually happened. And we wouldn't be here were it not for it.

It is actually pretty interesting what Pete Ridd has presented below. The 
background is, "acidification" is absurd, because even with 1000ppm of 
atmospheric CO2 it would drop to a PH of about 7.8. It is no issue.

However, there comes the next line. With lower PH, there would be a 
substantial decline in CO3, or carbonate, which is true. And corals would need 
CO3 to link it with Ca to produce CaCO3, calcium-carbonate. If you Google it 
or ask an AI; that is what you will be told.

This would be odd, because if so, corals would be very sensitive to lower PH 
values and it seems questionable how they could have survived for so long. 
Turns out, they are not using CO3, but HCO3, or bicarbonate. Evolution was 
smarter than alarmists, because HCO3 is insensitive to changes in PH in is 
always there in abundance. There is just nothing to it.

I have witnessed very healthy and abundant coral where CO2 is literally and 
very visibly bubbling out of the sea bed in the Pacific Islands. I can't 
imagine how high the CO2 concentration is in such waters, but it's certainly 
much higher than it can ever become from atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Corals started to exist at a time when co2 levels were 5000 ppm +.

It's literally impossible for them to have problems now with 430ppm rates.

The 2nd problem is that there is way more than 10 times more carbon in the 
oceans than in the atmosphere. There is barely anything of relevance a 430ppm 
atmosphere will add to the system. On top of that we have the boiling oceans.
The warmer the oceans get the less co2 they can "carry" .
Warming oceans should result in lower co2 concentrations.

The 3rd problem is that a climate as fragile as our is supposed to be, with 
tipping points all over the place would have made any form of long-lasting 
complex life impossible.
Yet here it is, 500 million years and going strong surviving meteors, solar 
fluctuations and outbursts and everything else - and 99.99999% of that time 
there was no technology to protect them.
Which means climate is very robust and self-regulating - and life has adjusted 
to all kinds of anomalies and the legend about a fragile climate is just a 
legend that we are being told since the 70s.

At least saturated, probably super-saturated compared to the partial pressure 
of the atmosphere.

In sea water, the proportions of CO2, HCO3^1- and CO2^2- are:
0.5:89:10.5 which is buffer system of pH 8.1. When CO2 is absorbed
by sea water a large amount is rapidly used by phytoplankton and by seaweeds 
and sea-grasses. The CO2 converted to HCO31^- is by corals to make their 
structures of CaCO3 as do shellfish and snails.

Microorganisms of the genera Cocolithophores and Formimifera use HCO3^1- to 
make their outer shells of CaCO3. When these die, the shells sink to the ocean 
floor. After millions of years the shell are transformed into limestone. All 
land formations of limestone were once under the oceans.

All land formations of limestone were once under the oceans.

Good to hear. The peak of Mount Everest, (8848 m or so), is composed of 
limestone, and contains marine fossils.

Shows that sea levels have dropped by at least 8848 meters, doesn't it?

I suppose "climate scientists" are fouling their britches, worrying about sea 
levels rising by fractions of a millimeter! Probably even silly enough to 
believe that adding CO2 to air makes thermometers hotter!

A symptom of insanity is the inability to accept reality. Are all "climate 
scientists" insane, or just ignorant and gullible?

=====

October:

Reykjavik Shut Down By Record October Snowfall
20 Hikers Rescued From Freezing Mt Washington
Early Frosts In Daegu And Gwangju
Record Cold Sweeps China
Greenland SMB Update: Above-Average Gains

Freezing Lows Grip Five Aussie States
Seoul Shivers Through Early-Season Frosts
QBO Raises Risk of Polar-Vortex Disruptions

Snow Flurries Hit UK
New Study On Great Barrier Reef Coral
China Emits Australia's Annual CO2 In Just 12 Days
Climate Lies Exposed

Greenland Cave Record
Human-Caused Megafauna Extinction in Australia Debunked
Scientists Warning Of A Coming Grand Solar Minimum

Winter Arrives In Northern Japan
Early Snow Continues Across Himachal's Peaks
Early Snow Deepens Across Mongolia As "Dzud" Fears Grow

Fresh Snow Hits Himachal Pradesh
"Fairytale Landscapes" In Norway
Spring Freeze To Sweep South America
Polar Vortex Disruption

Cold Deepens In South Korea
São Paulo Shivers
Strong Snow Season At Valle Nevado
Cold Outlook Sends U.S. Gas Prices Higher

Cold Records Fall Across Siberia And Mongolia
Taste Of Winter In B.C.
Snow For Tromsø
Hurricane Dud
Climate Scientist Debunks Sea Level Rise Fears
Study: Cold, Not Heat, Is The Real Killer

China's Arctic Blast Begins Today
France's Bumper Ski Season
Arctic 'Meltdown' Myth Collapses
'Climate Change' Is Dead

I think logic is prevailing... 

30+ Cold Records Fall In British Columbia
Major Cold Blast For China
Deep Winter Forecast Across South Asia
Vostok Crashes To -65C (-85F) In Mid-October
U.N. Climate Tax

The last time free people were taxed without representation, they started a 
revolution.

Arctic Air Crushes Century-Old Records Across Western Canada
Northern Hemisphere Snow Above Average
UK's Energy Woes
Lewotobi To 44,500 Feet

The seasonal pendulum has swung hard to winter. 

China To -22.6C (-8.7F) As Early Arctic Blast Hits
North America Pattern Flip
Coral Scare - Again
New Study Sinks AMOC Collapse Fears

"Such cold is extraordinary for the first half of October."


Delhi Shivers As Early Himalayan Snow Builds
NASA "Prophet" Said Arctic Would Be Ice-Free By 2018
Spain's Grid Operator Asks For Emergency Powers
+ Cold To Grip Europe Amid Gas Storage Concerns
October 13, 2025 Cap Allon

Practically ALL of Russia is colder-than-average, with early snow cover 
building rapidly.

Early Season Cold Sweeps Thailand, China, India - And Beyond
Western Energy Back On Track?
+ Solar Wind Stream Incoming
October 10, 2025 Cap Allon

Beijing just posted its coldest early-October day since 1951.

Siberia's Deep October Chill
Snow In Bulgaria
Polar Vortex Struggling To Form
Global Sea Ice Recovery
Palisades Fire: Arson Not "Climate Change"
+ Spain's Grid Operator Warns Of New Instability

Southern Asia's Early October Snow Intensifies
Romania's Peaks Under Deep October Snow
New Report: Renewables Caused Spain's Blackout
+ Startup To Reflect Sunlight To Earth At Night

Rare October Snowstorm Strikes Tibet And India
Antarctica Colder And Icier Today Than At Any Time In 5,000 Years
'Truth Map' Exposes Australia's Net Zero Madness

Big Freeze For Canadian Rockies
Historic Cold Stretch In Russia
1,000 Trapped On Everest By Rare October Blizzard
Arctic "Death Spiral" That Never Was
Met Office Deletes 'Phantom Station' Data After Exposure

Balkans Shiver Through Historic October Cold
Early Freeze Drives Record Gas Demand In Russia
Michael 'Hockey Stick' Mann Booted From UPenn Position

Poland's Tatras Blanketed
Reinsurers Rake In ¤2 Billion As 'Climate Crisis' Goes Missing
Pope Leo XIV Blesses A Block Of Ice

Romania's Mountain Snow
Heavy Dumps On The Way For North America
U.S. Summer Days Barely Warmer Since 1985
UK's Power Prices Lead The World - And So Does Its Decline

Arizona's September Snow
Blue Planet
First Snows Sweep Kazakhstan
Carpathians Covered
Southern Hemisphere Polar Vortex Weakens Sharply