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https://dailycallernewsfoundation.org/2024/10/04/cnns-harry-enten-points-to-a-bad-sign-for-kamala-harris-ahead-of-election/

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday that the current 
percentage of Americans who believe the U.S. is on the right track is a 
“bad sign” for Vice President Kamala Harris.

An average of 28% of Americans currently believe the country is on the 
right track, which historically puts an incumbent party on track to lose 
an upcoming election, Enten said. The CNN reporter said that the 
incumbent party normally loses an election if an average of 25% believe 
the nation is on the right track, while a party is likely to win if that 
number ticks up to an average of 42%.

“When does the average, when an incumbent party loses the election? Look 
at that, it’s just 25%. That looks a heck of a lot like that 28% that 
currently think the country is on the right track,” Enten said. “When 
the White House party wins … 42% on average think the country is on the 
right track.  This 25% looks a lot more like this 28%, it doesn’t look 
anything like this 42%, this to me is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’ 
campaign. The bottom line is, it looks a lot more like a loser than it 
does like a winner when it comes to the country being on the right track.”

The current 28% is significantly lower than the averages past incumbent 
presidents had when they won reelection. The averages ranged from 39% in 
the 1996 election up to 47% during the election of 1984, when former 
President Ronald Reagan won reelection.

“Look throughout history … in all of these instances, far more than 28% 
thought that the country was on the right track. 39% back in 1996, we’ve 
got an upwards of 47% in ’84, of course that was a blowout for Ronald 
Reagan. So there is no historical precedent for the White House party 
winning another term in the White House when just 28% of the country 
thinks that we’re on the right track,” Enten continued.


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