From: R Kym Horsell <kymhorsell@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: alt.global-warming,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,can.politics,alt.politics.liberalism,alt.politics.democrats,alt.politics.usa.republican
Subject: Re: Coincidence?
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2024 16:49:47 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: kymhorsell.com
In alt.global-warming Alan <nuh-uh@nope.com> wrote:
> On 2024-04-23 05:04, AlleyCat wrote:
>> Coincidence?
>> Solar activity started to increase at the same time that the evil fossil fuels
>> started to cause global warming!
>> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GL0CQUPaQAAOdN-?format=jpg&name=large
> "Solar activity"? You mean sunspots, actually, right loser?
> And while solar irradiance does vary along with sunspots activity...
> ...the variance is quite small; minuscule in fact.
> Here's an example:
> <https://drive.google.com/file/d/11uWdJYoaO-XF7znPsC9hEoWpYykLhSPU/view?usp=share_link>
> Notice that while sunspots were varying between less than 20 to about 170...
> ...a factor of more than 8.5 times...
> ...solar irradiance was only changing between 1365.4 and 1366.7...
> ...a factor of 1.0009.
> An increase of 7500% in sunspots results in an increase of...
> ...0.09% in solar irradiance.
> Now...
> ...do you have the arithmetical chops to apply that analysis to the data
> you presented?
> :-)
Here on AGW we've had a parade of dimwits over the years do the analysis.
Characteristically they can't do algebra or add numbers reliably.
Here's one amusing series from the wayback machine:
[Hillbilly science:]
Will Janoschka 23 Apr 2012 12:48 -0500 wrote:
> That is 0.001 K not 0.001.
> The measurument is not part of the equation.
> (Delta Ts) / (Delta Te) = b/a x (Te^3)/(Ts^3)
> Your move dumb shit!!
Tsk. Hopelessly demented.
-- Bill Snyder, 23 Apr 2012 13:05:20 -0500
A milli-kelvin change the sun temperature would
result in a 1 kelvin change in earth temperature.
Please do the numbers, so as, to prove to yourself,
that Hansens claims are Political BS.'
Logic does not work against Political BS!
-- Will Janoschka, 1 Mar 2012 7:18 PM
[Will can't solve the problem a(Ts+.001)^4 approx= b(Te+x)^4 which
can easy be linearised but elsewhere he shows he doesnt understand that.
He goes the wrong route anyway and tries to use differential calculus.
But he cant figure out how to solve that.
Simple algebra is all that is needed.
Linearising the problem shows 1 milliK at the sun is equiv to
Te/Ts millikelvins in solar irrandiance at the earth -- about
.06 milliK. Obviously that doesnt match global warming changes].
The percentage change [...] to cause a one degree Celsius change in steady-state
average earth temperature (i.e., the climate sensitivity) is as follows:
* Solar constant 1.4% [<=== i.e. 80K at the sun]
* Albedo 3.3%
* Effective emissivity 1.4%
-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_climate_model#Radiative-convective_models
--
What killed Americans during the Big Pandemic?
Variable R2 Beta 90% CI
pooruned 0.37787669 953.116 +- 289.85
heart 0.37748971 29.7025 +- 9.13556
povertysupp 0.35005037 134.206 +- 43.7992
eduhs 0.33063435 -195.982 +- 66.0904
stlifex 0.32180756 -314.162 +- 108.093
happscore 0.30928775 -64.6636 +- 23.3935
poorwhitepct 0.30622334 221.372 +- 79.8059
maxtemp 0.30042142 155.357 +- 56.7811
temp8 0.29833899 165.49 +- 60.7855
colrank 0.29782729 -34.4901 +- 12.5516
(COVID data from JHU as at end of Jan 2023 when the project closed down).
The US Census classifies an individual or household as poor of their
total cash income is less than 3x the cost to maintain was has
historically considered to be a minimum healthy diet, adjusted for HH size.
The "povertypesupp" is a Census measure of poverty incl non-cash
benefits and support supplied by some states.
"pooruned" is an estimate of the percent of the state population
classified as both poor and with only grade school ed.
"heart" is the state death rate per 100k population from heart disease.
Total US COVID deaths upto the end of Jan 2023 were 1.1 mn from 102 mn cases.