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The Slow, Painful Death Of Biden's Green Energy Transition

by Francis Menton	

We're coming up on three and a half years into the Biden presidency - a 
presidency which from the outset promised an "all of government" regulatory 
onslaught to force a transition away from fossil fuels and to "green" energy. 
[emphasis, links added]

And the regulatory onslaught has indeed come forth. But how about the actual 
transition in energy use? Not so much.

Let's have a round-up of some recent data points.

On the regulatory onslaught front, on March 7, 2024, Thomas Pyle of the 
Institute for Energy Research put out a list of "200 Ways the Biden 
Administration and Democrats Have Made it Harder to Produce Oil and Gas."

The list is chronological, beginning with executive orders that Biden issued on 
his first day in office (January 20, 2021) and continuing right up to the date 
of the post.

Yes, there is some duplication and overlap in the list (e.g., separately 
listing multiple steps toward approval of a single regulation); but even with 
that, the sheer number of efforts to restrict, hamper, harass, and extort 
fossil fuel producers is breathtaking.

You will probably remember most of this stuff, but it's remarkable to see it 
all put together in one place. By all means, look through the full list, but 
meanwhile, here is a small sample of the more significant items:

Item 1, January 20, 2021: "[C]anceling the Keystone XL pipeline."

Item 2, also January 20, 2021: "[I]ssuing a moratorium on all oil and natural 
gas leasing activities in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge."

Item 5, January 27, 2021: "{I}ssu[ing] an executive order announcing a 
moratorium on new oil and gas leases on public lands."

Item 10, also January 27, 2021: By the same Executive Order, "promoting 'ending 
international financing of carbon-intensive fossil fuel-based energy while 
simultaneously advancing sustainable development and a green recovery.'"

Item 14, February 19, 2021: "[R]ejoin[ing] the Paris Climate Agreement."

Item 24, April 22, 2024: "[I]ssu[ing] the U.S. International Climate Finance 
Plan to funnel international financing toward green industries and away from 
oil and gas."

Item 33, September 3, 2021: "[I]ssu[ing] a proposed rule that would update the 
Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2024-2026 Passenger 
Cars and Light Trucks to increase fuel economy regulations on passenger cars 
and light vehicles."

Item 48, November 12, 2021: "[Issuing] New Source Review ... regulations target
[ing] new, modified, and reconstructed oil and natural gas sources, and would 
require states to reduce methane emissions from hundreds of thousands of 
existing sources nationwide for the first time."

Item 66, February 18, 2022: "[Updating policy] for assessing proposed natural 
gas pipelines, adding new considerations for landowners, environmental justice 
communities, and other factors. In a separate but related decision, the 
commission also laid out a framework for evaluating projects' greenhouse gas 
emissions."

Item 75, March 21, 2022: "The SEC [issues a] proposed rule [that] would require 
public companies to disclose greenhouse gas emissions."

Item 95, April 21, 2022: Climate Czar John Kerry announces, "We have to put the 
industry on notice: You've got six years, eight years, no more than 10 years or 
so, within which you've got to come up with a means by which you're going to 
capture, and if you're not capturing, then we have to deploy alternative 
sources of energy."

Item 105, June 8, 2022: "President Biden's Interior Department announced it 
will reduce the fees on renewable projects on federal lands after announcing 
recently that royalty rates and rents would increase as much as 50% for oil and 
gas projects on federal lands."

Item 139, January 17, 2023: "Biden appointee [Richard Trumka] proposes ban on 
gas stoves."

Item 152, April 12, 2023: "[Issuing] new rules to force electric Vehicles on 
Americans. The New York Times notes that EPA is releasing rules that are 
intended to ensure that electric cars represent between 54 and 60 percent of 
all new cars sold in the United States by 2030 and 64 to 67 percent by 2032-in 
9 years."

Item 153, April 12, 2023: "[Issuing] new GHG emissions regulations for heavy-
duty vehicles."

Item 156, May 15, 2023: "EPA proposes new regulations requiring power plants to 
reduce GHG emissions and require carbon capture and sequestration or hydrogen 
co-firing even though these are uneconomic technologies."

Item 167, August 1, 2023: "EPA proposes updated greenhouse gas reporting 
requirements for the oil and natural gas industry."

Item 171, August 7, 2023: "Biden proposed 236 pages of revisions to NEPA 
(National Environmental Policy Act) guidance to make it harder to permit any 
natural gas, oil, or coal project."

Item 180, October 27, 2023: "A proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 
rule on hydrofluoric-acid-based alkylation could spur a round of refinery 
closures as the cost of replacing hydrofluoric acid-based alkylation with 
alternatives is extremely high."

Item 193, January 26, 2024: "Biden halts permitting for new LNG export 
facilities."

That's only 20 of the 200. There are plenty of other significant ones that I 
skipped over.

At the same time, the Biden Administration has dramatically ramped up subsidies 
and other favors and incentives for so-called "green" energy.

The badly misnamed "Inflation Reduction Act" of August 2022 alone contained 
over $400 billion of subsidies and handouts to the green energy industry.

So with the double whammy of endless restrictions and harassment of fossil fuel 
producers, and subsidies for the wind and sun, undoubtedly oil and gas 
production must be shrinking rapidly. Not at all. In fact, domestic production 
of both has just recently hit new records.

Here is a chart of U.S. crude oil production from the EIA, with data through 
January 2024:

https://i0.wp.com/climatechangedispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/image-
15.png?ssl=1

Production reached a [new] record of 13.29 million bbl/day in December 2023, 
before having a small down-tick in January. The current production level is 
well over double where it was when Barack Obama took office in 2009.

You really have to hand it to these oil and gas producers for somehow getting 
around whatever the government throws at them.

And here's another chart from the same source showing natural gas production 
through December 2023:

https://i0.wp.com/climatechangedispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/image-
16-e1713803797832.png?ssl=1

From EIA: "U.S. natural gas production grew by 4% in 2023, or 5.0 billion cubic 
feet per day (Bcf/d), to average 125.0 Bcf/d, according to our Natural Gas 
Monthly." There had also been increases in 2023 and 2022.

Well, but surely the transition to electric vehicles is taking off? Maybe - but 
the latest data would seem to indicate that the electric vehicle market is 
suddenly in big trouble.

For an overview, Robert Bryce has a long post at his Substack today, titled 
"Tesla In Turmoil: The EV Meltdown In 10 Charts." You may know that Tesla has 
just announced that it is laying off 10% of its workforce.

Bryce concludes: "I've said it before, and I'll say it one more time: Electric 
vehicles are The Next Big Thing, and they always will be."

Here's a chart not from Bryce, but from Statista, on Tesla sales by quarter:

https://i0.wp.com/climatechangedispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/image-
17-e1713803842277.png?ssl=1

Does it seem that Tesla is going gangbusters? It does until you look closely. 
Tesla sold 485,000 cars in 4Q 2023, and only 387,000 in 1Q 2024. That's rather 
a sudden and dramatic decline. Elsewhere in the EV biz, the story is the same.

From Cox Automotive, April 11:

Sales [of EVs in the U.S.] in Q1 rose 2.6% year over year but fell 15.2% 
compared to Q4 2023.

Do these declines represent a one-quarter blip or an accelerating trend? I'm 
betting with Bryce that this is the trend.

My prognosis is that the EV market is close to saturated. I have no interest in 
buying one of them, let alone paying a premium to do it. Do you?

But meanwhile, the large automakers (except Toyota) have all made big, big bets 
that the government can make its mandates stick. If consumers don't go along, 
this could be the end of Ford and GM, let alone Audi, Mercedes, and BMW. Tough 
luck, guys.

Our current rulers think that they have infinite ability to tell the people how 
to live, and infinite money to force the people to change their ways. They are 
wrong, and reality will catch up to them, if only gradually. 

=====

April:

NZ's Record-Cold March

Rare April Snow Hits Bay Area

More Snow For Midwest/New

Scandinavia Extends Historic Cold Spell, As Europe Sets Snow Records

No Spring In Sight For Much of Russia

Temperatures Are Falling Globally

Feet Of Spring Snow Pound Colorado

U.S. Braces For Record April Cold

Southern Cal's Back-To-Back Bumper Snow Seasons

Cold And Snow To Persist Into May Across Europe

Svalbard On For Cold April

Switzerland's Snow Matches Historic 1974-75 Season

Heavy Snow Slams Northwestern Iran

Europe Braces For Spring Freeze

Another Three Avalanche Deaths In The Alps

Indian State Suffers Coldest April Day On Record

The Arctic Was Warmer In The 1920s

Today's Arctic Sea Ice Extent Matches 1996

Snow Remains In Northern India

Germany Regrets Disbanding Nuclear Plants, It Was A "Mistake"

Yukon Snowpack Breaks Records

Early Snows Hit Australia's Ski Fields

It's Still Snowing On Kilimanjaro... Al Gore Was Wrong (as usual)

Alyeska Exceeds 700 Inches

Rare April Snow Hits Boise

Montreal's Snowiest April Since 2010

Clearing Crews Reach Baralacha

Antarctica At -75.8C (-104.4F)

Alta Posts Rare Back-To-Back 600+ Inch Winters

Indian Army Rescues 80 Trapped By Spring Snowfall

Remarkable Antarctic Sea Ice Recovery

April Nor'Easter Drops Feet Of Snow

600,000 Lose Power As 'Spring' Storm Batters Quebec

Avalanche Hits Helicopter In The Alps, Killing 3

Scandinavia Breaks Historic Low Temperature Stretch

New Zealand's Record-Cold March

Rare April Snow To Dust Bay Area Peaks

More Snow For The Midwest/Northeast

Scandinavia Extends Spell Of Historic April Cold, As Europe's Mountain Snow 
Breaks Records

Sweden Sets Coldest April Temperature

Swiss Avalanche Kills 3

Utah Snowpack At 132%, California Defies The 'Experts'

Anchorage Only 6.3" Away From All-Time Record

Colder-Than-Average March At Vostok

Antarctica Dips Below -100F

"Significant Spring Snowstorm" Takes Aim At Canada/Northern US

April Snow Builds Across Europe's Higher Elevations